there's an election

Martino Quackavelli · May 4, 2017

#humblebrag

Veggie Legs · May 4, 2017

Anyone know if there's a way I can vote if I move house between the registration deadline and the election?

Alty · May 4, 2017

Veggie Legs said:
Anyone know if there's a way I can vote if I move house between the registration deadline and the election?

Same constituency?

Veggie Legs · May 4, 2017

Alty said:
Same constituency?

No. But not moving very far.

Alty · May 4, 2017

Hmmm. Not sure. But good starting point is to contact your (new) local Electoral Registration Office, I'd have thought. If you've got a tenancy agreement or something proving you're about to move I'd have thought you should be able to register and vote in the right constituency.

Link here: https://www.gov.uk/get-on-electoral-register

johnnytodd · May 5, 2017

UKIP sounded great on Question Time

The Eyes of Self Actual · May 5, 2017

Jockney said:
It will help Labour if anything.

Most people are wise to Labour’s nonsense these days.

See another collapse in local elections.

People have had enough of the lefts plans for the UK and combined with Labour’s legacy when in power (Blair, Brown, wars, lies, economy, etc.), get used to be being wiped off the map. It’s a shame we only have one party to vote for, but that’s democracy UK style!

Roll on hard Brexit.

AFCB_Mark · May 5, 2017

Tory HQ will be doing cartwheels at the results coming in from Wales and Scotland currently. I'm sure they expected to do well in England, but some unheard of council gains elsewhere.

smat · May 5, 2017

The Eyes of Self Actual said:
Shame we only have 1 party to vote for, but that's democracy UK style!!

The Eyes of Self Actual said:
It’s a shame we only have one party to vote for, but that’s democracy UK style!

Are you going to keep on saying this?

Abertawe · May 5, 2017

AFCB_Mark said:
Tory HQ will be doing cartwheels at the results coming in from Wales and Scotland currently. I'm sure they expected to do well in England, but some unheard of council gains elsewhere.

In relation to Wales whilst the headlines may depict that analysing the results that have come in so far it's not fitting the narrative. From the results in they've secured areas where the Liberal Democrats & UKIP were recently eating into their vote. Swansea and Cardiff being prime examples. Seats they've lost have gone to independents and Tory gains have been in posh places where Labour couldn't possibly hope to win.

Some big hitters have still to come in yet and the mayorals will be interesting too. Worrying for the Lib Dems. They're doing nothing. Good and bad news for Labour. They need to win their traditional marginals but there's no sign they will so far.

Nuttall has also released a statement all but conceding UKIP to the Tories. Gotta hope not everyone who voted UKIP last time are turkeys voting for Christmas come general election time.

Alty · May 5, 2017

I was tempted to bet on the Tory candidate to beat Burnham for Manchester Metro Mayor at 16/1, but decided against it. Looking at results so far I'm beginning to wish I had. Likely to be close.

Boletus Edulis · May 5, 2017

Psephologically the fall of Labour, and the link between the fall of UKIP and the rise of the Conservatives, are fairly easily understandable. What is interesting is what is happening to the Lib Dems. A month ago Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who specialise in local election trends, were predicting the Lib Dems would gain a 100 seats, possibly more even than the Tories. John Curtice, who is nearly always on the money, bought into this. This suggests that recent by-election behaviour (which methodologically drives Colin and Michael's data) is not translating into local election behaviour. This is quite unusual, and suggests quite frankly that all balls are in the air. To me the electoral picture, which is normally fairly easy to understand, looks like it was painted by Jackson Pollack. Which may be very apposite for what we are witnessing.

blade1889 · May 5, 2017

Alty said:
I was tempted to bet on the Tory candidate to beat Burnham for Manchester Metro Mayor at 16/1, but decided against it. Looking at results so far I'm beginning to wish I had. Likely to be close.

No way Burnham is loosing here in Manchester. That really would be a huge shock.

Techno Natch · May 5, 2017

Alty said:
I was tempted to bet on the Tory candidate to beat Burnham for Manchester Metro Mayor at 16/1, but decided against it. Looking at results so far I'm beginning to wish I had. Likely to be close.

The Tory got in narrowly in the south west with a turnout of just 29%.

I doubt very much that those votes have come from Bristol but probably a lot from BANES and Glos. Find it difficult to be to concerned as I'm still not sure what difference a metro mayor will make anyway.

johnnytodd · May 5, 2017

Hope Red does nothing stupid after these results.

JaseTheVillain · May 5, 2017

Neck and neck for mayor here in the West Mids, after the first round it's:

CON - Andy STREET - 216280 (42%)

LAB - Siôn Llewelyn SIMON - 210,259 (41%)

LIBS - Beverley Anne NIELSEN - 30,378 (6%)

UKIP - Pete DURNELL - 29,051 (6%)

GREEN - James BURN - 24,260 (5%)

COMM - Graham John STEVENSON - 5696 (1.14)

Hoping that most Lib/Green/Communist voters had Labour as 2nd choice. I know I did, at least. Voted 1. Green 2. Labour.

Abertawe · May 5, 2017

Alty said:
I was tempted to bet on the Tory candidate to beat Burnham for Manchester Metro Mayor at 16/1, but decided against it. Looking at results so far I'm beginning to wish I had. Likely to be close.

What results were you looking at? It was a massacre.

These in the know style leaks of results are a pile of shite. I went to bed last night with the LD's supposedly about to topple Labour to win Swansea yet they got nowhere near. Political ITK's are worse than football.

smat · May 5, 2017

Surprised by the Lib Dems failure to do anything. Thought they would at least do well in Remain constituencies. Did the coalition kill them off forever? (That would be a shame, lol)

Nerdlingers, are council elections reliable for the national picture even with the turnout so low?

johnnytodd · May 5, 2017

Abertawe said:
What results were you looking at? It was a massacre.

These in the know style leaks of results are a pile of shite. I went to bed last night with the LD's supposedly about to topple Labour to win Swansea yet they got nowhere near. Political ITK's are worse than football.

Boletus Edulis · May 5, 2017

Not all the results are in yet, but I think there is enough data to give us some indication to what is the wider state of mind concerning the GE.

At the point of writing there is, in terms of seats, only one winner. Cons are currently 430 up, Labour down 242, Lib Dem down 31 and UKIP are effectively wiped out as a presence in town halls, and these numbers will get worse for the opposition.

However, looking at the polling data nationally the picture is not quite so one sided. The Tories have polled around 38%, Labour, 27%, Lib Dems 18% and UK 5%. Broadly this means that the Conservatives have polled a little less than most of the opinion polls have them over the past few months, as are UKIP, whereas Labour are a fraction up and the Lib Dems quite a lot. This does not mean all looks well in Tim Farron's garden because his party usually secure more of the pie in local elections, and FPTP in national elections has a significant impact.

What I really would like to see, and do not have the data to do myself, is an overlay of the battleground parliamentary seats. Local and parliamentary voting behaviour is never exactly comparative, but it would give an indication of where we might be in six weeks time, seat wise.

To me this does say things look blooming awful for UKIP, quite possibly terminally, but that the Tories should not yet count their chickens. Things do look grim for Labour, but not necessarily at realignment levels yet. It is possible that there is a small glimmer of hope for the Lib Dems if they polled well in certain target seats.

What will be interesting is whether the actual result changes people's minds - along the lines of I don't need to vote Tory because they are going to easily win, I must vote for Labour my vote could make a difference, UKIP are dead and I'd be wasting my vote etc etc.

Alty · May 5, 2017

Abertawe said:
What results were you looking at? It was a massacre.

These in the know style leaks of results are a pile of shite. I went to bed last night with the LD's supposedly about to topple Labour to win Swansea yet they got nowhere near. Political ITK's are worse than football.

I was talking about council results. I didn't have any info on Manchester. As demonstrated by the result!

JaseTheVillain · May 5, 2017

We've elected a Tory mayor in the midlands.

I live in a county of complete fucking morons.

Captain Scumbag · May 5, 2017

smat said:
Surprised by the Lib Dems failure to do anything. Thought they would at least do well in Remain constituencies. Did the coalition kill them off forever?

I expected them to make significant gains in Scotland, which is basically a massive Remain constituency. At the time of writing (29 of 32 results announced), they are down two seats from 2012. Yikes!

UKIP has never been a force in Scotland (especially at council level), so the Tory gains (currently up 152 seats) have almost entirely been at the expense of Labour. The SNP are down a bit too, but basically we're looking at a massive Labour to Tory swing.

In terms of Brexit-related conclusions, the Tory gains (combined with very little movement one way or another for the SNP and Lib Dems) suggest that Brexit isn't quite as unpopular here as some might think and/or want it to be.

On the other hand, I have been drinking since noon and may be speaking out of my hat.

Hope that helps!

smat · May 5, 2017

Thank you Scumbag, and why have you been drinking since noon? Is it for lordofthepies' birthday?

Martino Quackavelli · May 5, 2017

So the Tory candidate won the Cambs (+ Peterborough) mayoral election. The candidate who pledged to build a fucking underground in Cambridge. Dunno if you've been to Cambridge, but it's an insanely stupid idea that will come to nothing (hopefully).

TheMinsterman · May 5, 2017

Martino Quackavelli said:
So the Tory candidate won the Cambs (+ Peterborough) mayoral election. The candidate who pledged to build a fucking underground in Cambridge. Dunno if you've been to Cambridge, but it's an insanely stupid idea that will come to nothing (hopefully).

You sure he doesn't mean an underground network for people to escape the forthcoming Torypocalypse?

BeesKnees · May 5, 2017

smat said:
Surprised by the Lib Dems failure to do anything. Thought they would at least do well in Remain constituencies. Did the coalition kill them off forever? (That would be a shame, lol)

Nerdlingers, are council elections reliable for the national picture even with the turnout so low?

Interesting analysis by Curtice.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...tory-landslide-general-election-a7720801.html

The projected national share based on todays results gives Con 38%, Lab 27%, Lib 18% UKIP 5%. It's not so much that Lib Dems failed to do anything and more a case that the combined Con + UKIP was more than Lib Dems gained from Remain Conservatives switching. It explains why May is playing hardball so she can mop up as many UKIP votes as possible.

Oeuf · May 6, 2017

Was following a live feed of the results in Surrey earlier (fuck knows why as they were a TREMENDOUSLY BORING set of results with very little movement) but I was quite amused by how petty and embittered some of the defeated candidates appeared.

UKIP candidate in Spelthorne:

“This is a prelude to the general election. Unfortunately, people are not voting on local issues.

“You could put a blue rosette on a dead rat in Spelthorne and people would vote for it.”

I mean, it's PROBABLY TRUE but not sure that insulting the public you were vying to represent is THAT GOOD A LOOK

And then this from a defeated Tory:

“It is the fate of the many to have their future decided by the few. It is a fantastically disappointing day for Dorking South and The Holmwoods in that a relatively small group of people who have come out on the day to vote for the status quo.

“This will inevitably mean that more shops will close and nothing will change. The Liberal Democrats, much like Domino’s, are very good at stuffing leaflets through the door but just as I wouldn’t want Domino’s running the council, I wouldn’t want the Liberal Democrats either.”

Again, not exactly A BAD LINE but... I mean, this is kind of how democracy works. Quite a STRANGE VERDICT when the winning candidate secured over 50% of the vote.

Will probably REFRAIN from any further discussion of the locals. Even the UKIP collapse, which would ordinarily be HILARIOUS, isn't very cheering, as we're so obviously heading for a Tory landslide in a month. Oh well. At least the Libs retained their three Guildford seats!!!

Alty · May 6, 2017

Oeuf said:
Was following a live feed of the results in Surrey earlier (fuck knows why as they were a TREMENDOUSLY BORING set of results with very little movement) but I was quite amused by how petty and embittered some of the defeated candidates appeared.

UKIP candidate in Spelthorne:

“This is a prelude to the general election. Unfortunately, people are not voting on local issues.

“You could put a blue rosette on a dead rat in Spelthorne and people would vote for it.”

I mean, it's PROBABLY TRUE but not sure that insulting the public you were vying to represent is THAT GOOD A LOOK

And then this from a defeated Tory:

“It is the fate of the many to have their future decided by the few. It is a fantastically disappointing day for Dorking South and The Holmwoods in that a relatively small group of people who have come out on the day to vote for the status quo.

“This will inevitably mean that more shops will close and nothing will change. The Liberal Democrats, much like Domino’s, are very good at stuffing leaflets through the door but just as I wouldn’t want Domino’s running the council, I wouldn’t want the Liberal Democrats either.”

Again, not exactly A BAD LINE but... I mean, this is kind of how democracy works. Quite a STRANGE VERDICT when the winning candidate secured over 50% of the vote.

Will probably REFRAIN from any further discussion of the locals. Even the UKIP collapse, which would ordinarily be HILARIOUS, isn't very cheering, as we're so obviously heading for a Tory landslide in a month. Oh well. At least the Libs retained their three Guildford seats!!!

What's going on? Is this PP's alter ego?

Very much enjoyed the Domino's line.

Alty · May 6, 2017

BeesKnees said:
Interesting analysis by Curtice.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...tory-landslide-general-election-a7720801.html

The projected national share based on todays results gives Con 38%, Lab 27%, Lib 18% UKIP 5%. It's not so much that Lib Dems failed to do anything and more a case that the combined Con + UKIP was more than Lib Dems gained from Remain Conservatives switching. It explains why May is playing hardball so she can mop up as many UKIP votes as possible.

The Times is positing the 'UKIP as a gateway drug' theory. A lot of long-term Labour voters might have felt uncomfortable switching to the Tories but were more willing to give UKIP a shot. Now that they've broken the Labour voting habit and the Tories are actually getting on with Brexit, they're willing to vote Conservative.

Don't know if they have much data to back it up, but it sounds plausible. The majority of UKIP's vote at the last election came from people who weren't previously Tories. Although ex Tories did make up about 40% of it (and of course those voters look to have drifted back to the Tories in droves).

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there's an election

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