Champions League 2015/16

2-0 Astana Fucking pissing it.

Ended 2-2.

3 draws at home for the Kazahs.

Interesting 4-2 defeat for Sevilla against Borussia Monchengladbach.

Looks like for once they wont be involved in the Europa League!

Shaktar's reaction against Real Madrid was impressive.

Final matches of a group stage of the Champions League will be played this week. Let's look at the corner kicks statistics of teams just before the last round of the main club tournament of Europe.

All teams played 5 matches and only 3 clubs made more corners than opponents in all 5 games. These clubs appeared to be: Barcelona, Real Madrid and Lyon. The Spanish clubs are well known favourites, so such statistics is expected from them. Each of them has the lead in the group with 13 gained points. But quite unexpectedly to see near them Lyon which has only one point in five games. Four clubs won by corner kicks in 4 of 5 games: Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, Manchester United and Bayern Munich. Atletico Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern Munich are leaders of their groups, but Sevilla with three points takes the last place in the group and fight only for the League Europe.

Besides those teams who won by corner kicks in all matches, there are also those teams which lost all matches by corner kicks: FC BATE Borisov and Borussia M'glad. However, both clubs had very serious opponents: Juventus, Manchester City and Sevilla (for German team); Barcelona, Bayer and Roma (for Belarusians). Many teams lost 4 of 5 matches by corner kicks. Among them it is expected to see outsiders of groups - FK Astana, Malmo 1FF, Dinamo Zagreb, Maccabi Tel Aviv, but quite unexpected to see favourites: Zenit which won all 5 matches and PSG which has already booked its place in the knockout rounds.

By average total quantity of corners per match there are in the lead Borussia M'glad, Arsenal, Valencia, Dinamo Zagreb and Manchester City. In matches with participation of these teams 12 or more corner kicks were delivered on the average. Thus opponents of Borussia M'glad made more than 9 corner kicks on the average, and the opponents of Zagreb Dynamo made 8. But in average total corners of Valencia matches which equals to 12,4, 7,2 corner kicks are the share of football players of Valencia.

And here is the teams with the lowest average total corners: Bayer, Wolfsburg and FC BATE Borisov with less than 8 total corner kicks per match. So FC BATE Borisov delivered altogether just 5 corners in 5 matches, while his opponents made 34.

Also Bayer Leverkusen and PSV are among the teams which are the most low-delivering corners with just 15 corners in 5 matches. Maccabi Tel Aviv and Malmo 1FF delivered only 16 corners, and Wolfsburg and FK Astana 17. The most of corners made Atletico (41) and Bayern Munich (40) and it is mare than 8 corner kicks per match.

Till now We analyzed attacking potential of teams but let's look at the teams where their opponents delivered the least of corners. Barcelona is in leaders again here: in 5 games it allowed opponents to deliver corner only 6 times (i.e. it is less than 2 corner kicks per match). Leaders in this stats are also Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Real (in matches against these teams opponents made altogether less than 13 corner kicks). Teams which allowed opponents to deliver the most of corners are Borussia from Menkhengladbakh (44 corner kicks in 5 matches), Malmyo (43 corner kicks) and Maccabi (42 corner kicks).

It is expectedly to see Barcelona among leaders bY difference of corners (delivered 6.4 corners more than opponents on the average), and also Bayern Munich (delivered 5.4 corners more than opponents on the average) and Atletico (with the positive average difference of 4,6 corner kicks). From the opposite side - FC BATE Borisov, Malmo 1FF and Maccabi Tel Aviv. In matches against Belarusians opponents made 5,8 corner kicks more on the average, against Swedes - 5,4 corners more on the average, and against Israelis - 5,2 corners more on the average.

Real Madrid finished the group phase with a flourish. And almost with a beautiful 9th goal from Casemiro.

So Wolfsburg and PSV could let United out. The match between Wolfsburg and Manchester United was pretty disputed though.

City, Juventus, Sevilla and M'gladbach composed a strong group. If Gladbach had react to their bad phase sooner maybe there would be a nice dispute for the places to next phase.

Gary Nevilles first game in charge currently sees him a goal down against Lyon although it may be a nothing game anyway as Gent are currently leading Zenit which puts Valencia out no matter what they do. Still you'd want a win in your first match. On another note who'd have thought Gent would qualify from that group when it was drawn?

Losing to this Lyon side is pretty bad no matter what's happening elsewhere.

Gent have been pulled back but Lyon have gone 2-0 up, so although their fate is back in their hands they don't look likely to make it count. Neville would probably rather have seen Gent get the win!

Gent have took the lead again, so it's all for nowt.

Roma went through with 6 points and a goal difference of -5. Porto went out with 10 points and a goal difference of +1.

Seemed to be a lot of cheering at that 'closed doors' Kiev game when they scored.

Good old Waffa. Strong on punishing racism

Probabilities for the draw:

So Zenit it is then. Tough draw!
I think Wolfsburg is your best bet. 60% chance of being considered the underdogs isn't that bad though.

Think any of those teams could/definitely would turn us over considering our proud recent history of pants-shittery, but Zenit are struggling under AVB and United showed that Wolfsburg can be got at (even if they can get at you too). Barcelona would be a bit boring, played them enough in recent years and we'd definitely lose, but I really don't want Atletico. It'd be a very tight tie and we normally lose those. Wouldn't mind Real, we've not played them since 2006 and we'd have a better chance vs them than Barca.

After Lyon and Valencia being the favorites of the group to reach next phase I like to see Gent and Zenit advancing.

I took a look to Leverkusen vs Barcelona match and Leverkusen almost could get classified. I'd say Ter Stegen was the main guy for Roma's classification. Leverkusen create some good goal chances but Barça's mixed lineup is not near of what is expectable from a team like this. But a shout to Messi's and Chicharito's goal that were both beautiful.

And Giroud and Lewandowski were had a very good day.

My prediction for the draw

Real Madrid - Arsenal
Manchester City - Gent
Zenit - PSG
Atletico Madrid - Juventus
Wolfsburg - Roma
Barcelona - Kyiv
Bayern - Benfica
PSV - Chelsea

When is the draw?

JimJams said:

When is the draw?

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Tomorrow ain't it?

Its usually the Friday on the week that there is UCL.

Monday at 11.

I'm pretty happy with that draw for a change.
Not only should we beat Kiev, but both Barca and Bayern are drawn against very tough opponents.

Barcelona will cruise past Arsenal.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Roma beat Real either. I know Rafa Benitez is good in Europe but he didn't prove so with Napoli, so while I expect Real to win that tie, would it be a surprise if Roma wins? Not really. That's if Rafa Benitez is even there by February. How he's still in the job is beyond me.

Also, the Gent vs Wolfsburg tie will also be interesting. Many expect Wolfsburg to take the piss there and still win, but Gent made it through a group against Valencia and Lyon. Its not impossible for them. I would actually love it if they reached quarters.

Roma were very lucky to get through the group, and (I may be wrong) but I believe they're the team with the worst record who've made it through the group ever. Heard that in passing, but either way, they nearly went out to a bunch of tractor assembling Belurussians and a bunch of pharmaceutical packet-labellers.

Even a manager of limited talents, like Rafa Benitez, will get through that tie.

Man U must be kicking themselves a bit but then Gent did well to get through their group but you fancy Wolfsburg to beat them.

Some very good ties.

Think these teams will go through:

Madrid x 2
Barca
Bayern
Wolfsburg
Man City
PSG
Zenit

In terms of competition, Benfica vs Zenit is the best tie. In terms of level, I'd give it to Juve - Bayern.

Not often you see a European/World best without the famous 3 form Barca!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/35104275

They'll be back in it when they crush Arsenal by 8.

Libertadores FC said:

Barcelona will cruise past Arsenal.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Roma beat Real either. I know Rafa Benitez is good in Europe but he didn't prove so with Napoli, so while I expect Real to win that tie, would it be a surprise if Roma wins? Not really. That's if Rafa Benitez is even there by February. How he's still in the job is beyond me.

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He's still able to analyse an opponent's weakness and play to maximum effect. He did manage the double header against us quite well (even though he only fucking put out a sodding 442 in both games!). RM are still great and Roma are not all that domestically.
I think you're selling Rafa short because of the Classico scoreline. Have no idea what happened to his usual cautiousness. Brain fart or summat.

mistermagic said:

He's still able to analyse an opponent's weakness and play to maximum effect. He did manage the double header against us quite well (even though he only fucking put out a sodding 442 in both games!). RM are still great and Roma are not all that domestically.
I think you're selling Rafa short because of the Classico scoreline. Have no idea what happened to his usual cautiousness. Brain fart or summat.

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I'm selling Rafa short because of how he did at Napoli. Nothing short of an embarrassing job there.