The Relegation Thread

Beginning to believe we might stay up now

If I had to make any sort of prediction I think I'd be inclined to tip the bottom three to remain as they are. In recent seasons when they've been rubbish I've always felt that Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle would escape. Less confident this season (indeed, Villa have practically already gone). Think Norwich, Bournemouth and Swansea may all have enough about them to keep their heads above water.

Humongous Fungus said:

Yeah we play some decent football, but still lacking a bit of confidence to compliment that.

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Yeah, and someone to score a goal or two would be nice.

you're up against our defence soon, fill yer boots

Munkiki said:

you're up against our defence soon, fill yer boots

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I'm not having this damned discussion with you again, you still owe us 3 points you lying fucker!

JaseTheVillain said:

I'm not having this damned discussion with you again, you still owe us 3 points you lying fucker!

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I won't be wrong this time, I promise. Just to put your mind at ease - you've conceded 1 goal in your last three games, we've conceded 11.

Munkiki said:

I won't be wrong this time, I promise. Just to put your mind at ease - you've conceded 1 goal in your last three games, we've conceded 11.

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We do seem to have woken up a little bit, no way it'll be enough unless we can sign a goalscorer of some description in the next 3 days.

Well, that and everyone else remaining awfully shite.

5 wins and 5 draws in our last 12 games. Puts us in the top 6 of the form table. Tonight's results about perfect. 4 wins or so required.

Things may look different after Arsenal on sunday. But for now, fair to say we're pretty bloody pleased.

Villa, Us and Sunderland have to be the favourites to go down from this point. Really struggling to see where we get the points to stay up from.

A few days late but Congrats to Spurs and United on reaching the magical 40 Point mark. Speaking as a United fan i'm very revealed to be guaranteed another season in the top flight

I'll be surprised if you need anything more than 33 points this season for survival.

Down to four now. Villa and Norwich both already gone. Last spot between Newcastle and Sunderland. It's there for whoever wants it the most.

Important result last night. Whilst I'm enjoying Everton being shit them winning has given us room for error. Would be a good idea for us to bag some points at home to Palace & Southampton before taking on Arsenal & SPurs away back to back.

Abertawe said:

Important result last night. Whilst I'm enjoying Everton being shit them winning has given us room for error. Would be a good idea for us to bag some points at home to Palace & Southampton before taking on Arsenal & SPurs away back to back.

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Worry not - the Jacks will be fine with Curtis. The old man will keep you up. It's hard to look beyond Villa, Sunderland and Norwich to drop.

P.S. Can we have McBurnie back? I don't know what happened there.

Munkiki said:

Down to four now. Villa and Norwich both already gone. Last spot between Newcastle and Sunderland. It's there for whoever wants it the most.

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Agree with that unfortunately. Losing to Villa is proof that you don't deserve to stay up even though I admire your young manager's gung-ho attitude. Can't see you staying in the 2nd tier for long though.
Big Sam has made solid reinforcements in January and I refuse to believe that he will one day get relegated. I reckon Swansea and Bournemouth aren't out of the woods just yet and one of those could be the 3rd to go down. Otherwise it'll be Newcastle.

Neil abandoned his attacking philosophy in about September.

mistermagic said:

Agree with that unfortunately. Losing to Villa is proof that you don't deserve to stay up even though I admire your young manager's gung-ho attitude.

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Our season hasn't recovered from our trip to St James Park. Before then, we were playing decent football (well, as decent as one can expect from a poor Norwich side). Our defence was costing us but we had a plan and were, at least, competing. It was after that game that Neil started to doubt himself. Instead of picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves down and getting over it (by recognising it for the freak result it was), he started to tinker. No longer playing to our strengths, he attempted to play to the opposition's weakness. Different players, different formations, different tactics every game. Not only that but playing players out of position just to get them in the team. We lost our identity and no-one seems to know what they're doing. If you lose belief in yourself, it's only a matter of time before the players do too.

Our defence is a major problem, has been all season, but that isn't the reason we're going down. The signings we made in January, which we should have made in the summer, might've made a difference if we had a solid plan. The defence we had in our first season back up here under Lambert wasn't much better, if at all, but Lambert had confidence in himself. Good players can adapt. Average players need to be playing in their best positions and to their strengths. If a player didn't fit a role, no matter who it was, Lambert wasn't afraid to drop them for someone who did. Neil seems reluctant to do so. I'm still completely behind him but he needs to go back to what got him the job and have faith in himself. Admittedly I've not watched much of Bournemouth (so feel free to correct me AFCB_Mark) but from the outside, no matter how bad a run they were in, Eddie Howe never seemed to question his 'way'.

Can't see you staying in the 2nd tier for long though.

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I know we're in a rut but even I don't think we'll achieve back-to-back relegations!

Big Sam has made solid reinforcements in January and I refuse to believe that he will one day get relegated. I reckon Swansea and Bournemouth aren't out of the woods just yet and one of those could be the 3rd to go down. Otherwise it'll be Newcastle.

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No chance Bournemouth will go down. Media darlings never go down. Think Swansea will pull themselves clear too. They're having a mini-revival which should see them safe, plus their GD is far superior to everyone else's down there. Got so used to Sunderland finding a way to survive every season, I always expect them to do it again (though, as Wigan found out, there is a limit). But every so often, Newcastle pull a result out of nowhere to make me question whether they'll go down. It is really difficult to call between those two.

With Afobe generally causing chaos where ever he goes and Gradel shortly coming back into the side, I would say we're likely to keep picking up points.

It'll be up to Sunderland to string some wins together to overhaul us, which given Sams crazy rigid conservatism I can't see him attacking enough to pick up enough wins. Poor old Defoe on his own.

I would worry about Newcastle, they do have quality in there, even if it's hit and miss.

Regarding question above about our 'way', if Howe ever has one criticism labeled at him from us, and it's rare, but itd be that he has one way of playing and that's it. No plan B.

Howe would rather perfect 'his' one way of playing, even if sometimes it's totally inappropriate for the opposition and guarantees a defeat against certain opposition. Because He'll always believe that perfecting as far as possible it will give enough wins, perhaps against other sides who mix and match and don't master any particular system.

Norwich looking in a bad way, but some decent players there clearly, just stuck in a rut. Will Neil last the season?

QSF has different formations but certainly away from home he is a defence first manager and sometimes we have been very negative albeit against good sides.

Generally after a slow start though the home games have been very enjoyable.

I do wish we played more attacking players out wide I suppose but understand that isn't the modern way...

Yeah, there has to be a balance. You need to be able to adapt but having a strong Plan A is a good place to start. In changing tactics and personnel every game, there's no cohesion and no way of the team building partnerships.

If he doesn't start learning from his mistakes, I fear it's only a matter of time. Already some of our fuck-wit fans are starting to turn against him. We've gone from one extreme to the other. Hughton was very stubborn and reluctant to change anything - extending to substitutions which would always be like-for-like and after the 85th minute. Neil has lost his way and is changing every thing, every week in the hope of stumbling across something that works. I blame Newcastle. They fucking ruined him.

This is our run-in:

Palace - A
Bournemouth - H
Man U - A
Leicester - H
West Ham - A
Stoke - H
Arsenal - A
Everton - H
WBA - A
Norwich - A
Aston Villa - H
Liverpool - A
Sunderland - H

We should be fine but the away games are pretty tough so think we will need to pick up about 10 points at home to be ok.

What is everyone else's like?

Ours goes something like:

L
L
L
L
L
L
Then a run of 4 games which I'm unsure about, we might not lose all of them. Newcastle H, Palace A, Sunderland H, Watford H. Fancy us to at least draw one of them, maybe even win one if we're lucky.
L
L
L

Liverpool (h) L 0-2
Stoke (a) D 1-1
Everton (h) L 1-3
Man City (a) L 6-0
Tottenham (h) L 3-1
Swansea (a) D 1-1
Chelsea (h) L 0-2
Bournemouth (h) W 2-1
Man Utd (a) L 0-2
Southampton (h) W 1-0
Watford (a) D 1-1
Newcastle (h) W 2-1
Arsenal (a) L 3-1 (unless, unlikely as it is, if there's a chance of us stopping up, and Arse are out of the title race, W 1-2)

Putting us on 27 points (discounting Arse), so yeah, byebye PL.

Chelsea (A)
Stoke (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Leicester (A)
Sunderland (H)
Norwich (H)
Southampton (A)
Swansea (H)
Liverpool (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Tottenham (H)

And a home game against Man City to fit in at some point. I reckon we'll get around 16 points, which will see us finish on 40. Should be enough.

34/35 points should be enough this season imo, the bottom of the table is so damned poor this season, I can't see many of us picking up many more points. I can see you lot getting a minimum 12 from that, which will keep you safe I think.

Can see us winning all our home games apart from City, Spurs (though we've a good record against them) and maybe Sunderland if derby bullshittery occurs. Should get something against Villa too. Any defensive injuries and we're in big trouble though, with no left back aside from the currently injured (and crap) Dummett, no cover for Janmaat and inexperienced CB cover.

Good chance West Brom could be dragged in to it imo. Their schedule is a bit of a shitter. Everton, Lestoh, Man Yoo and Arsenal being 4 of their next 5 games. City, Watford, Spurs and West Ham their last 4. They were missing a few players against us on Saturday but they were fucking awful.

Munkiki said:

Ours goes something like:

L
L
L
L
L
L
Then a run of 4 games which I'm unsure about, we might not lose all of them. Newcastle H, Palace A, Sunderland H, Watford H. Fancy us to at least draw one of them, maybe even win one if we're lucky.
L
L
L

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Snore.

Jockney said:

Snore.

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On the contrary, only Everton & Sunderland fans have seen more goals than us this season.

I really fancy Norwich for it now. Ship goals left, right and centre, not very good away from home and their games coming up at home are pretty bastardly. They've got United, City, Chelsea, West Ham all to come at CR which much constitute the majority of their remaining home fixtures. Be a difficult one to get out of with Newcastle seemingly able to pick up points on an albeit fairly inconsistent basis.

JaseTheVillain said:

34/35 points should be enough this season imo, the bottom of the table is so damned poor this season, I can't see many of us picking up many more points. I can see you lot getting a minimum 12 from that, which will keep you safe I think.

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You'll probably beat Liverpool at the weekend tbh which will help you.

SALTIRE said:

You'll probably beat Liverpool at the weekend tbh which will help you.

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We don't beat Liverpool at home mate, last time was in 2011, and before that it was 1998. We're much better at Anfield.