The League One Relegation Thread 15/16

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014 Millwall(30)
49 -
48 - Safety 2011
47 - Southend(30)
46 -
45 - Sheff U(30), Port Vale(32)
44 - Peterborough(30), Bradford(29)
43 -
43 -
42 - Barnsley(30)
41 - Scunthorpe(29)
40 -
39 - Swindon(31)
38 -
37 - Rochdale(29), Bury(29)
36 - Doncaster(30)
35 -
34 -
33 - Blackpool(30), Shrewsbury(31)
32 -
31 -
30 - Fleetwood(29)
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30 - Chesterfield(30)
29 -
28 -
27 - Crewe(30)
26 -
26 -
25 - Oldham(28)
24 -
23 -
22 - Colchester(30)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Doncaster(30) - 36 points. Barnsley(A), Millwall(H), Swindon(A), Shrewsbury(H), Scunthorpe(A)
18th Blackpool(30) - 33 points. Oldham(H), Swindon(A), Bradford(H), Chesterfield(A), Millwall(A)
19th Shrewsbury(31) - 33 points. Colchester(A), Rochdale(H), Doncaster(A), Coventry(H), Scunthorpe(H)
20th Fleetwood(29) - 30 points. Scunthorpe(H), Coventry(A), Gillingham(H), Sheff U(H), Burton(A)
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21st Chesterfield(30) - 30 points. Colchester(A), Crewe(H), Gillingham(A), Blackpool(H), Southend(A)
22nd Crewe(30) - 27 points. Rochdale(A), Chesterfield(A), Barnsley(H), Southend(A), Burton(H)
23rd Oldham(28) - 25 points. Blackpool(A), Gillingham(H), Peterborough(A), Scunthorpe(A), Port Vale(H)
24th Colchester(30) - 22 points. Chesterfield(H), Bury(A), Shrewsbury(H), Bradford(A), Port Vale(A)

Well, Colchester look dead and buried. Not only do they seem to have too much to do to stay up, defensively they remain a sorry mess. 70 goals conceded, on pace to let in 110 by the end of the season(Stockport's 102 conceded in 01-02 in the target to beat). They look to have a make or break 3 games next up. Oldham grabbed a decent draw away at Wigan and have games in hand on their rivals. But their next few games look very tricky. Blackpool away on Tuesday is massive for them. Crewe are now unbeaten in 5, but are still struggling to win games and also have some tough games coming up. Chesterfield slip into the bottom 4 and I'm not sure they have it in them to get out. 3 huge fixtures next up for them sandwiched around the Gills game.

Fleetwood move up a spot, but only have 1 win in their last 10 and have a terrible run coming up. Shrewsbury grabbed a vital away win at Blackpool and have a couple of winnable away games coming up. Their poor home form will cost them if they don't improve in that area soon. Blackpool are slipping back down the league, as already mentioned, they have a huge home game against Oldham on Tuesday now. Doncaster are also slipping back down after a poor run, no wins in their last 5. Could they get sucked back into trouble? Got some difficult fixtures.

Very interesting few weeks coming up. A few teams are slipping down the table but are just out of the picture for now whilst the teams already down aren't exactly winning games. Some big fixtures on Tuesday, Rochdale v Crewe, Colchester v Chesterfield and Blackpool v Oldham.

I'm gunna stick my neck out and say it's gunna be Colchester, Chesterfield, Fleetwood and Bury to drop.

Crewe are only 3 points adrift with better form and a nack of escaping, while we have turned a corner under Sheridan, although the masses may not realise it yet.

Bury are sinking like a stone.

Then again it's all guess work.

Hard to call.

Crewe are unbeaten but need to turn them draws into wins to survive.

Chesterfields mini revival under Wilson looks to be over, Bury and Rochdale are dropping fast.

Colchester look gone and show no signs of stopping the rot, fancy Fleetwood to survive for me looked solid yesterday and don't lose many but drawing a lot! Ameobi should boost them, held the ball up well yesterday and looked an asset.

Chesterfield, Colchester, Oldham and Crewe for me at the moment.

It could be us rather incredibly.

Hooped Wizard said:

It could be us rather incredibly.

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Your next five look tough to be fair!

We need to win our next two to stand a chance, even then March is an absolute shitter of a month. Garratt and Inman are good but not quite superhuman.

Can't see us getting more than 44-45 points.

valefan16 said:

Your next five look tough to be fair!

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You'll miss them 6 points we give you.

Hooped Wizard said:

You'll miss them 6 points we give you.

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You'll be ok, teams in even worse form.

Genuinely think 7 wins will keep us up. If we win the 2 games this week (which we won't) we'll be well on our way I'd like to think. We need to beat Chesterfield to stand any chance of survival so no wins this week and we're done for.

If I'm right, our last four games are Colchester, Oldham, Doncaster and Fleetwood as well. 4 points in the next 2 games going into Barnsley at home would be a good week for us. But the draws are making some of our fans believe we're better than what we are. We're not good enough to win games convincingly and that will relegate us.

Bury are doomed I tell you. Yesterdays spineless display was worse than anything experienced under Barker, Preece, Warnock, Barrow or Casper.

Just hope Colchester drop and never return, i'd take them getting relegated ahead of Blackpool I think.

Why the animosity towards Colchester, other than it is not oooop north?

THE LAST WALTZ said:

Why the animosity towards Colchester, other than it is not oooop north?

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A certain 12pm kick off at the end of last season. Hope they get liquidated.

THE LAST WALTZ said:

Why the animosity towards Colchester, other than it is not oooop north?

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Just imagine if Us, Millwall and Colchester leave the division at the end of the year (sorry Southend), with Bolton, Rotherham and Blackburn coming down, and Accrington, Mansfield and Carlisle making it up - it'll be a flat cap and whippet wankathon!

joethegill said:

Just imagine if Us, Millwall and Colchester leave the division at the end of the year (sorry Southend), with Bolton, Rotherham and Blackburn coming down, and Accrington, Mansfield and Carlisle making it up - it'll be a flat cap and whippet wankathon!

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People in Gillingham can't look after themselves, never mind Whippets.

SF_ said:

A certain 12pm kick off at the end of last season. Hope they get liquidated.

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Oh that.
Don't be so fucking grumpy, you went up anyway and got a day out in our lovely capital city.

THE LAST WALTZ said:

Oh that.
Don't be so fucking grumpy, you went up anyway and got a day out in our lovely capital city.

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Don't care, I got up at 4am to witness that shit, they hang on by the skin of their teeth every season anyway. Disband the club, sell the ground for scrap and erase them from the history books.

SF_ said:

Don't care, I got up at 4am to witness that shit, they hang on by the skin of their teeth every season anyway. Disband the club, sell the ground for scrap and erase them from the history books.

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Don't think they are in the history books, are they?.

Colchester are one of those clubs I just can't see anyone having any sort of animosity towards, West Brom are like that too.

Gillingham and Morecombe are the same. We've got quite a few home games up now and we're not AS bad at home as we are away. If we fail to pick up at least 3 points from tonight or Colchester on Saturday then we're in trouble.

THE LAST WALTZ said:

Don't think they are in the history books, are they?.

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We beat Leeds once, didn't you know? Back when they were good and stuff.

T.A said:

Gillingham and Morecombe are the same.

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Fuck you buddy.

Good night all round for those that didn't play.

Burys result also leaves them needing 10 from 15 which barring a ridiculous collapse should see them safe.

We are looking good at the back now however we are doing cock all up top.

Sheridan is getting it right but it's whether or not he has enough time

Good win for us tonight, well needed too. If we manage to beat Colchester then I think we'll be alright.

At a loose end this weekend hoping Fleetwood, and Chesterfield don't win! The problem is they are both at home with winnable games!

Massive result today means we are only 4 points adrift with games in hand. It really is in our own hands now. We will never be sticking 3 and 4 past teams but the defense has given us a solid Base to play from.

Other than a worldie today from loft that would be 4 without conceding.

The tide has turned at BP. We can do this. People are starting to believe

If any Crewe fan even hints at the possibility of us staying up they should be sectioned. They are a risk to society.

3 points off now, what a disgrace these last 2 and a half years have been for the club.

We'll drop again, 3rd time in 4 years. :flint::hesk:

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 -
48 - Safety 2011 Sheff U(32), Bradford(31)
47 - Southend(31)
46 -
45 - Barnsley(31), Port Vale(33)
44 -Peterborough(31), Scunthorpe(31)
43 -
43 - Bury(31)
42 - Swindon(32)
41 -
40 -
39 - Rochdale(31)
38 -
37 -
36 - Doncaster(31)
35 -
34 - Blackpool(32), Chesterfield(32)
33 - Fleetwood(30)
-------------------------------------------
33 - Shrewsbury(31)
32 -
31 -
30 -
30 -
29 - Oldham(30)
28 - Crewe(32)
27 -
26 -
26 -
25 -
24 -
23 - Colchester(32)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Doncaster(31) - 36 points. Millwall(H), Swindon(A), Shrewsbury(H), Scunthorpe(A), Bradford(A)
18th Blackpool(32) - 34 points. Bradford(H), Chesterfield(A), Millwall(A), Coventry(H), Oldham(A)
19th Chesterfield(32) - 34 points. Gillingham(A), Blackpool(H), Southend(A), Walsall(H), Scunthorpe(A)
20th Fleetwood(30) - 33 points. Coventry(A), Gillingham(H), Sheff U(H), Burton(A), Barnsley(H)
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21st Shrewsbury(31) - 33 points. Colchester(A), Rochdale(H), Doncaster(A), Coventry(H), Scunthorpe(H)
22nd Oldham(30) - 29 points. Peterborough(A), Scunthorpe(A), Port Vale(H), Swindon(H), Sheff U(A)
23rd Crewe(32) - 28 points. Barnsley(H), Southend(A), Burton(H), Gillingham(A), Blackpool(H)
24th Colchester(32) - 23 points. Shrewsbury(H), Bradford(A), Port Vale(A), Wigan(H), Walsall(A)

Well, Colchester can start planning for life in League Two. Another complete collapse from them today after going 2-0 up and having a man sent off. There is no way they are staying up. Crewe are joining them. An abysmal performance against a relegation rival today all but sealed their fate. Unless they pick up 2 wins and a draw from their next 4(which aint happening), they are down. Been fun, but so long L1. Oldham have shown signs of life since Sheridan took over, got a superb home win against Gillingham, might see them mount a late escape. Shrewsbury slip into the bottom 4 thanks to their involvement in the FA Cup. Massive game coming up for them away at Colchester next week.

Fleetwood are relying on their home record to drag them clear of danger. Got 4 very tough fixtures coming up, big test of their mettle. Chesterfield also got a big win against Crewe, but I'm not sure if they can feel too confident yet, especially with some of their fixtures they have coming up. Blackpool can't get themselves clear at the moment, they blew the chance to get a result against Swindon today. They could get dragged into the mire if they aren't careful. Donny are another who aren't safe, they lost their Yorkshire derby with Barnsley.

So, you can pen in us and Col U to go down. But from there, its 2 from 6 by the looks of it.

Anyone playing us in the next few weeks will win - we have no idea how to play against bottom-end sides.