Here's hoping le pen dies in random car crash( the French election thread) and general European ting

[Aber gas]

Match day chat..

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

LFN will win...

 

[Aber gas]

No

 

[Aber gas]

No pasaren

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Marine Le Pen will walk it.

 

[Craig]

Oradour-sur-Glane

 

[Aber gas]

Marine Le Pen will walk it.

Wanna bet?

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Wanna bet?

We already have, but yes.

If Le Front National win I have a free four course meal at your restaurant. If Juppe or any other candidate wins I will buy as both drinks and a slap up meal.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

LFN will win...

^

Though I'm not betting.

Everything else has gone weirdly awry this year, so why not this?

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Car crash would be more in keeping with Mme Le Pen's political tradition, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jörg_Haider#Death_and_aftermath
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Stuart_Donaldson#Life

 

[Aber gas]

Car crash would be more in keeping with Mme Le Pen's political tradition, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jörg_Haider#Death_and_aftermath
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Stuart_Donaldson#Life

Excellent point. I will adjust accordingly.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

antifascism welcomes careless drivers

 

[Captain Scumbag]

No one should listen to me because my election prediction record from 2015 onwards is something like 0%, but I really don't think a suspicious traffic accident is required here. The two-round process the French have for their presidential election should do the trick.

I predict something similar to 2002. Front National will advance to the second round at the expense of Parti Socialiste, only to get soundly beaten by the LR candidate (presumably Juppé) due to a big hold-your-nose type vote by pretty much everyone from the centre right to the left. Le Pen might go one better than son pére and win the first round, but that only makes a second round clobbering more likely IMO.

 

[Dirk]

No one should listen to me because my election prediction record from 2015 onwards is something like 0%, but I really don't think a suspicious traffic accident is required here. The two-round process the French have for their presidential election should do the trick.

, like mine.
I predicted all wrong (Brexit, US vote). (Hopefully I'll be wrong for our German Bundestagswahl in 2017, too

And that's why I voted here "Dunno". Juppé/Sarkozy vs Le Pen is my prediction and then in the second round it will be the Conservative Candidate and not the Fascist one.
Can't stand this bitch.

btw:
Fash princess Le Pen: A Good one. A combination of Fashion and Fascism? Although fashion-wise she's conservative

 

[nousername]

I mentioned it in the US thread, but she was 7/1 over a week ago, down to 2/1 after Trumps win. The bookies clearly think it's a coin toss between her and Juppe.

Why don't we make this thread about the forthcoming European elections from the Italian Constitutional referendum (4th Dec?) to the French, German and Dutch elections in 2017?

I'm not convinced that Le Pen will win, but I suspect there will be a few suprises over the next 12 months. It's already looking likely that Renzi will lose the referendum and be forced to step down. This could set off quite the chain reaction.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

Le Pen won't win, you should trust me on this as I called both brexit and Trump

 

[Luc@]

I don't know who is going to win but definitely it won't be the FN, because, unlike the Americans, the French aren't a mass of idiots who don't understand anything about policy. They have a strong democratic tradition.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

humble brag here but i met segolene royal in berlin for anniversary celebration for the fall of the berlin wall back in 2009 i guess? round then. she was very nice

 

[Alty]

No one should listen to me because my election prediction record from 2015 onwards is something like 0%, but I really don't think a suspicious traffic accident is required here. The two-round process the French have for their presidential election should do the trick.

I predict something similar to 2002. Front National will advance to the second round at the expense of Parti Socialiste, only to get soundly beaten by the LR candidate (presumably Juppé) due to a big hold-your-nose type vote by pretty much everyone from the centre right to the left. Le Pen might go one better than son pére and win the first round, but that only makes a second round clobbering more likely IMO.

I mentioned it in the US thread, but she was 7/1 over a week ago, down to 2/1 after Trumps win. The bookies clearly think it's a coin toss between her and Juppe.

Why don't we make this thread about the forthcoming European elections from the Italian Constitutional referendum (4th Dec?) to the French, German and Dutch elections in 2017?

I'm not convinced that Le Pen will win, but I suspect there will be a few suprises over the next 12 months. It's already looking likely that Renzi will lose the referendum and be forced to step down. This could set off quite the chain reaction.

I think she has a decent chance. I mean, the Socialists are so unpopular and a lot of FN's policies are attractive to left-wing workig class voters. Juppe and Filon appear to be your typical Clinton-esque, establishment old guard type candidates who could struggle to get the vote out in a run-off versus an insurgent party with a charismatic leader like Le Pen. As for Sarkozy, he appears to be veering off into very nationalist rhetoric in an attempt to appeal to the soft FN vote. An interesting tactic but might alienate the 'anyone but Le Pen' voters in a run off.

Very difficult to predict, but I suspect that with events of recent years and France still being in a state of emergency this will be FN's best ever chance.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

I agree it's FN's best chance to date, but I still think a Le Pen victory is the sort of shock result that only happens when there's a degree of complacency and/or apathy elsewhere across the political spectrum. It was there with Brexit (let's be honest, neither of us really thought we'd win). It was there with Trump (as evidenced by the low turnout and the sizeable decline of the Democrat vote). But I don't think that will be the case in France.

Two main reasons. The first is my aforementioned point about the French electoral system, which, by design or accident, does a great job ‘flagging’ a better than expected performance by the nationalists before giving everyone a second chance to vote. It's impossible for FN to advance to the second round without sounding alarm bells across the rest of the political spectrum, which makes them extremely vulnerable to tactical voting in the second round, as seen when Chirac* annihilated Le Pen Sr. in 2002. The second is that, post Brexit and Trump, there's now a well-established "nationalist resurgence" narrative in the West, with many already seeing FN's victory as the next obvious chapter. There is no element of surprise here. The bookies have her as favourite.

*The basic argument you make against Juppé and Filon were among those made against Chirac in 2002. In fact, Chirac was a thoroughly Clinton-esque candidate. He was widely viewed as establishment to the core and was dogged by allegations of corruption (the left in France united around the slogan “votez escroc, pas facho”). He won the biggest landslide victory in French electoral history.

 

[Alty]

True, but I'm not sure the level of exasperation with the establishment was anywhere near what we're witnessing now. Also, Le Pen Sr. was viewed as a vile old bastard blathering on about Jews and Africans by a large portion of French society. Obviously the daughter has plenty of detractors, but her politics seem slightly more nuanced and the threat of Islamic extremism is a real one that many people are rightly worried about.

If I was betting now I'd probably go for her getting into the run-off and losing, but I could definitely see her grabbing a narrow win.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Oh, it's worse now. Mrs Scumbag says so, and she's right about everything. But how does one quantify this worsening, especially with respect to how it might relate to a run-off situation (bearing in mind the aforementioned problem with tactical voting)? Chirac won 82-18 back 2002. Has the situation declined to the point where that gap can be closed? My gut feeling is no, but it has been wrong quite a lot recently. We shall see, I guess.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

I have a couple of friends from a French family background who I feel are far better qualified to comment on this than I. They were big supporters of Hollande's Socalists but have become dismayed at him and his government not achieving anything to address the social problems France suffers. I'll try to paraphrase their conversations.

Basically, much the same as the Brexit debate and US with their election, the gearing up towards this debate in France is showing signs of a polarisation and division of the peoples into 'right' and 'left' pigeonholes, with debates become more shouty and rhetoric based and less nuanced discussion based. These divisions run deeper than they did in previous elections, not helped by issues of Islamic extremism and migrant integration/cohesion of the society in general, which have been pushed ever front and centre in recent years. They have just the same 'centre ground establishment hasn't worked, we need something different' issues

However they are fairly confident right now that Le Pen will not end up in power, for two reasons: Firstly the two stage election which has been covered already. If FN make it into the final round, a majority (even if it's slim) will vote against them.

Secondly, because the centre-right Republican party (Sarkozy knocked out, but whoever ends up running for it) are sensing this polarisation and trying to distance themselves from the cushy establishment label, are leaning much further right in their rhetoric, to try and cover off FN. That is going to split the right vote, meaning FN might not even make it into the final round. FN will have to go some to rally all of the right behind them and overturn the Republicans.

If the right is going to split, the left in France have their own problems. Hollande's Socialists have suffered a full on Labour party style meltdown internal fight between it's left and more central wings.

Another left choice, the Green party, which was allied with Hollande's Socialists, has been tainted and infected with the same fight between harder left versus 'hang on to power, more central' types.

So in political organisation terms the left is all over the shop, but the polarisiaon of debate and the momentum of the right could rally the left together and force them into sorting their shit out. The best hope for a coherent left seems to be a new alliance forming between the Greens and the Communists, which could render Hollande's Socialists irrelevant. The momentum of the right might just stop the left's infighting and get that alliance rallying behind Melenchon.

So yeah, in short the centre ground is toxic. It's the Greens and the Communists on the left, an ever further right leaning Republians and then the far right FN - it's polarised and going to get messy. And whichever side wins, there's going to be millions of upset people. Sound familiar?

 

[johnnytodd]

La Pen will win to go with my other 4 correct predictions, the world is waking up !

love it

 

[Dirk]

La Pen will win to go with my other 4 correct predictions, the world is waking up !

You jinxed it here, johnny and you'll be 4 of 5 after this election. It's "le Pen". Although "La" is in french the female article and Marine Le Pen is a women(bitch) it's nonetheless Le Pen

love it

What's to love here when a far right winger would win a vote in France? And I don't mean a Conservative but a nearly fascist (racist and xenophobe)?

johnny I like you but not your political views.

 

[Red]

It doesn't have to be an accidental crash

#ianstuartdonaldson

 

[johnnytodd]

You jinxed it here, johnny and you'll be 4 of 5 after this election. It's "le Pen". Although "La" is in french the female article and Marine Le Pen is a women(bitch) it's nonetheless Le Pen



What's to love here when a far right winger would win a vote in France? And I don't mean a Conservative but a nearly fascist (racist and xenophobe)?

johnny I like you but not your political views.

If the powers that be listened to its people in the first place none of these would get in Dirk..........simple choice let the establishment elite drain your life away with taxes and rules to benefit them and them only......or let the far right in to transfer the blame to foreigners......easy choice.

 

[nousername]

Sarkozy out.

A bit of a strategic error possibly, with a moderate centre right candidate eliminated? (Is Alan Juppe a more palatable right wing alternative to Le Pen?)

 

[nousername]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...rench-presidential-lead-sarkozy-a7428126.html

Does anyone have updated odds on where Le Pen is post Sarkozy?

 

[Alty]

She's 9/4, so not much movement. Fillon is 8/11.