The Real League Table 2016/17

[JonnyTheWomble]

Hi all, I'm not sure if someone else wanted to do this or not, if so then you're welcome to take over. For now I'm happy to do it, and can do for the rest of the season with weekly updates if people want me to.

But even so... the time is coming, and most clubs have reached the last 10 games of the season mark. Here's the real league one table for the 2016/17 season!

Guaranteed positions are worked out by the maximum number of points that clubs can collect. So, because Oldham have the 4th lowest maximum points (69) the guaranteed safety line is 70. (69+1)
Arguably this could be 69 as you can stay up on goal difference, but hey, I'm sure you can -1

I've added two predicted positions, one using the season long points per game (points divided by games played) and the other using current form, which uses the same calculation except the games played only include the last 6.

Each club is positioned next to their current amount of points, and their maximum amount has been added next to their name in brackets.

103 (Champions 2014)
102
101 - (Champions 2012)
100
99 - (Champions 2015)
98 - (Guaranteed champions 2017)
97 - (Guaranteed promotion 2017)
96
95
94 - (Promotion 2014)
93 - (Promotion 2012)
92
91 - (Promotion 2015. Predicted champions on both season and current form 2017)
90 – (Predicted promotion on current form 2017. Guaranteed playoffs 2017)
89
88
87 - (Champions 2016)
86
85 - (Promotion 2016)
84 - (Champions 2013. Predicted promotion on season form 2017)
83 - (Promotion 2013)
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75 - (Predicted playoffs on season form 2017)
74 - (Playoffs 2016, 2014, 2013. Predicted playoffs on current form 2017)
73 – (Playoffs 2012)
72
71
70 - (Guaranteed safety 2017)
69 – Sheffield united 102 (Playoffs 2015)
68
67
66
65
64 – Fleetwood 97
63
62
61 – Scunthorpe 94
60 – Bolton 96
59 – Bradford 89
58 – Millwall 91
57
56
55
54 – Southend 87
53
52
51 – Bristol Rovers 81 (Safety 2015)
50 – Peterborough 89 (Predicted safety on season form 2017)
49 – Walsall 82, Rochdale 88, Oxford 88 (Safety 2013)
48 - (Safety 2014)
47 – Wimbledon 80
46 - (Safety 2016)
45 – (Predicted safety on current form 2017)
44 – (Safety 2012)
43 – Northampton 73, Milton Keynes 73
42 – Shrewsbury 72, Gillingham 72, Charlton 75
41
40 – Bury 70
39 – Oldham 69
38
37
36 – Swindon 66
35 – Port Vale 74
34
33
32
31 – Chesterfield 64
30
29
27
26 – Coventry 59

PS I used to be called JonnyWomble :O but due to a mix up with my emails, I've had to make a new account. If you see any mistakes be sure to mention them.

 

[joethegill]

I do enjoy seeing this develop, it does make sense of targets a little more so thanks for posting it! I'm also a fan of the predictor that a Grimsby fan site run each year for the last part of the season, that'll probably be live round about now.

 

[Bobbin']

101 - (Champions 2012

This just breaks my heart when I see where we are now.

Cheers me up a little to see we can still reach the predicted amount for play-offs though!

 

[JonnyTheWomble]

I also have a predicted table, although I'm not exactly sure how to upload it. Major talking points are Charlton dropping into 21st place with only 44 points, and Oxford clinching Scunthorpe's (who fall to 9th) play off place with 75 points.

 

[Krazy8]

37 – Swindon 66

As much as we need all the points we can get, we've only got 36 at the moment.

 

[JonnyTheWomble]

This just breaks my heart when I see where we are now.

Cheers me up a little to see we can still reach the predicted amount for play-offs though!

At least you don't support either of the other teams beginning with C in this league!

 

[joethegill]

I also have a predicted table, although I'm not exactly sure how to upload it. Major talking points are Charlton dropping into 21st place with only 44 points, and Oxford clinching Scunthorpe's (who fall to 9th) play off place with 75 points.

This is the one I enjoy! http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator1.php

 

[Robie]

I also have a predicted table, although I'm not exactly sure how to upload it. Major talking points are Charlton dropping into 21st place with only 44 points, and Oxford clinching Scunthorpe's (who fall to 9th) play off place with 75 points.

I need to see this!
Did this for League 2 last season. What I did was screen shot and upload it.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

Thanks for doing this, as said it is enjoyable (for some) to see the progress, or other wise of the teams.

 

[JonnyTheWomble]

I need to see this!
Did this for League 2 last season. What I did was screen shot and upload it.

I've had a go at typing it up straight in the text, because I tried to screen shot it, but that meant the numbers became hard to read.

The first column shows each teams maximum points, the 2nd is each teams predicted final points using the season long Points Per Game, and the third is their predicted points using PPG from the last 6 matches.

Team name /Max / Season ppg / Form ppg
Sheffield 102 / 90.7 – 1st / 91 – 1st
Fleetwood 97 / 84.1 – 2nd / 89.7 – 2nd
Scunthorpe 94 / 80.2 – 4th / 66.5 – 9th
Bolton 96 / 81.2 – 3rd / 78 – 4th
Bradford 89 / 75.4 – 6th / 74 – 6th
Millwall 91 / 76.2 – 5th / 83.7 – 3rd
Southend 87 / 71 – 7th / 68.7 – 7th
Bristol 81 / 65.2 – 11th / 64.3 – 10th
Peterborough 89 / 69.7 – 8th / 63 – 12th
Oxford 88 / 68.3 – 9th / 75 – 5th
Rochdale 88 / 68.3 – 9th / 57.7 – 16th
Walsall 82 / 64.4 – 12th / 67.3 – 8th
Wimbledon 80 / 61.8 – 13th / 63.5 – 11th
Milton Keynes 73 / 54.9 – 15th / 51.3 – 19th
Northampton 73 / 54.9 – 15th / 59.7 – 14th
Charlton 75 / 55.2 – 14th / 43.8 – 21st
Gillingham 72 / 53.7 – 17th / 55.3 – 18th
Shrewsbury 72 / 53.7 – 17th / 58.7 – 15th
Bury 70 / 51.1 – 19th / 61.7 – 13th
Oldham 69 / 49.8 – 20th / 57.3 – 17th
Swindon 66 / 46 – 22nd / 47.7 – 20th
Port Vale 74 / 48.8 – 21st / 39.3 – 23rd
Chesterfield 64 / 40.8 – 23rd / 40.2 – 22nd
Coventry 59 / 34.2 – 24th / 35.2 – 24th

I've used colouring to show the predicted positions for promotion, playoffs, and relegation.
I've rounded all of the decimals to the closest 0.1, although maybe I should have rounded to the nearest full number because you can't get half a point in football.

In my opinion this league is still really open, even with the top clubs beginning to pull away. Anyone down to Rochdale have a decent chance for making the play offs, plus anyone up to Milton Keynes could easily slip into the danger area. Then there's us and Walsall who in a few matches might as well put our feet up and start to give the youth more of a chance.

 

[Robie]

Thanks JonnyTheWomble

Would be surprised if this is still the case now.

 

[Indian Dan]

A compass will have more points than we'll get between now and end of season.

On the upside the club Trust are buying the County Ground off the council.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

any chance of an update....please

 

[Robie]

I have done it slightly differently but hopefully this helps. Form is based on the last 6 games.

The table on the left is the predicted table if everyone continues collecting points as they have over the whole season. The table on the left is if they continue their 6 game form over their remaining fixtures.

 

[07.05.16]

Great work, very interesting - but only 3 teams go up!

 

[Robie]

Ha thanks, the problem with bastardising a table I made in league 2 last years. Will fix it for next update!

 

[Robie]

Okay hopefully fixed now

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Charlton...

 

[blade1889]

Here's a good one a guy on our forum puts together...

 

[blade1889]

Here's a good one a guy on our forum puts together...

Points swing are those required for guaranteed safety/PO/automatic/champions. And Avg Pos column a are the average positions of teams faced. Red and green squares are individual teams left to face away or at home respectively.

 

[Krazy8]

Here's a good one a guy on our forum puts together...

Gutted that that Bradford turnaround's cost us a shot at the playoffs.

 

[LS Bantam]

Gutted that that Bradford turnaround's cost us a shot at the playoffs.

Not sure when we were in a bad a position as to 'turn things around'?
We've been in the Play Offs all season, we have the fewest losses in the entire league (out of the top 5 leagues only the top 5 Prem clubs have lost the same of fewer), we're unbeaten at home all season, we've not lost a home league game in over a year, not lost a Saturday league game at home since September 2015, and we have the joint second best goals conceded tally in the entire league.
We had a run of about 5 games where we didn't win a few weeks back, the same as we did in September, if we had turned just a handful of all our drawn matches into wins we'd be comfortably in the autos.

 

[WilsdenBantam]

Not sure when we were in a bad a position as to 'turn things around'?
We've been in the Play Offs all season, we have the fewest losses in the entire league (out of the top 5 leagues only the top 5 Prem clubs have lost the same of fewer), we're unbeaten at home all season, we've not lost a home league game in over a year, not lost a Saturday league game at home since September 2015, and we have the joint second best goals conceded tally in the entire league.
We had a run of about 5 games where we didn't win a few weeks back, the same as we did in September, if we had turned just a handful of all our drawn matches into wins we'd be comfortably in the autos.

He's a Swindon fan, pretty sure he's taking the piss regarding our turnaround on Saturday costing them a shot at the playoffs.

 

[Gassy]

Not sure when we were in a bad a position as to 'turn things around'?
We've been in the Play Offs all season, we have the fewest losses in the entire league (out of the top 5 leagues only the top 5 Prem clubs have lost the same of fewer), we're unbeaten at home all season, we've not lost a home league game in over a year, not lost a Saturday league game at home since September 2015, and we have the joint second best goals conceded tally in the entire league.
We had a run of about 5 games where we didn't win a few weeks back, the same as we did in September, if we had turned just a handful of all our drawn matches into wins we'd be comfortably in the autos.

This has gone right over your head fella

 

[LS Bantam]

Aye, no idea who he supported!

 

[Robie]

Millwall have played 3 games since the last table whereas others have played just one.
At the other end of the table Charlton have improved their form.