there's an election

[Captain Scumbag]

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Anyone bold enough to make a prediction in terms of seats or vote share? I'm steering clear this time I think!

What I will say is that I think much will depend on turnout and how the vote goes in Northern and Midlands marginals. Given some of the regional polling we've seen I think Labour will do ok in the rest of the country - they ought to do well in London and other metropolitan areas and Wales looks like being ok for them. I'd expect their Southern vote to hold up too (not that they have a great deal of seats to lose outside of the capital) so it's very much the more provincial Brexit inclined Mids/Northern Lab seats I'm concerned about. We'll soon see, I suppose.

Head says 62 seat majority for the tories. Heart says Jezza by a whisker followed by a summer insurrection and full communism by August.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Imagine not voting for Oscar The Grouch in an election against Cruella De Ville

 

[markwwfc1992]

Maybe The Sun should stop sitting on the fence and tell us who they're backing

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I was born in Chatham but my parents escaped to the Scottish Highlands in the early 1980s. I’ve lived in fair Caledonia since the age of two, which probably accounts for my sarcy sense of humour, borderline alcoholism and cheerless worldview.

The accent is a bit mixed but it undoubtedly becomes less refined and debonair (read, more Scottish) when the red mist descends. Continue to imagine me sounding like Malcolm Tucker – or whatever angry Scotsman pop culture reference you use – if it suits.

Think I'm going to envisage you as Rab C. Nesbitt from now on.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

FINAL POLLS (by margin of Tory lead)

BMG: +13
ICM: +12
ComRes: +10
Panelbase: +8
Opinium: +7
TNS: +5
YouGov: +7
Survation: +1
Ipsos Mori: awaiting.

Poor Survation are all out on their own.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Anyone bold enough to make a prediction in terms of seats or vote share? I'm steering clear this time I think!

Oh, come on. What's the worst that could happen?

England, Wales & Scotland (632 seats):
CON: 317
LAB: 255
SNP: 48
LDs: 8
PLC: 3
GRN: 1
UKIP: 0

Northern Ireland (18 seats):
Don't care.

Headline outcome:
Tories lose their majority (9 seats shy), and we have a hung parliament.

Likely consequences:
I cry, investigate emigrating to Canada, and never return to 1FF again.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Oh, come on. What's the worst that could happen?

England, Wales & Scotland (632 seats):
CON: 317
LAB: 255
SNP: 48
LDs: 8
PLC: 3
GRN: 1
UKIP: 0

Northern Ireland (18 seats):
Don't care.

Headline outcome:
Tories lose their majority (9 seats shy), and we have a hung parliament.

Likely consequences:
I cry, investigate emigrating to Canada, and never return to 1FF again.

I'm not sure you'll be too keen on Trudeau...

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Might do a prediction tomoz. I'm sure it will be similarly pessimistic in the opposite direction!

A few more random polls - these are not members of the British Polling Council and conduct polls infrequently, if at all, so may not be even remotely reliable! Again by Con lead:

SurveyMonkey +4
Norstat +4
Qriously -3 (!)

 

[The Jovial Forester]

FINAL POLLS (by margin of Tory lead)

BMG: +13
ICM: +12
ComRes: +10
Panelbase: +8
Opinium: +7
TNS: +5
YouGov: +7
Survation: +1
Ipsos Mori: awaiting.

Poor Survation are all out on their own.

There's one to give us hope: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
ETA Doh, missed your last post. Apparently they got the referendum right

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Con: 349
Lab: 222
SNP: 48
LDem: 9
DUP: 8
SFein: 5
PCymru: 3
SDLP: 3
Green: 1
Ind: 1
UUP: 1
UKIP: 0

Conservative majority: 53.

Farron to resign at 3.07am.
Corbyn coup at 9.28am Friday morning.

Brexit to go horribly wrong.

Blue Labour to form in November 2019.

Blue Labour to win the 2022 election with a landslide.

 

[Abertawe]

I've got it as a very low hung parliament meaning the Tories will be hoisted up by Ulster.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

I'm not sure you'll be too keen on Trudeau...

Good point. The “escape to Canada” plan was devised many years ago, before the maple-syrup-sucking simpletons over there replaced Mr. Harper with that puppy-dog-eyed socialist menace.

Clearly a rethink is required.

It may be that, come tomorrow, the easiest way for me to escape socialism would be to move back to France. Think on that, Britain. France. We are going to be more socialist than France.

I need to lie down.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

If there's not a hefty Tory majority tomorrow morning, I'm on the cans all day

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Well voting this morning was rather an obstacle course. My first vote since moving flat.

I picks up my bit of paper on the way out the door, telling me where I should go. I wonder up the road to the church hall specified. I see the polling station sign, so I walk in. Easy?

I get blank looks and confusion when I give them my card and tell them my name/address. After a few minutes of faffing around, it turns out there's actually a second polling station around the corner in a different bit of the church. Ok.

So I wonder around the church to where there's a second polling station sign helpfully hidden from the main road. I walk up to this second building, where a smug looking bloke in a blue rosette pops up to bid me a passive aggressive 'good morning'. I leg it past him and into the polling station. I'm in, I've done it. Or have I?

I hand the old lady on the desk my bit of paper, answer my address and name when asked. I'm asked a second time. Then again a third time for my name. What is this a bloody interrogation?

Finally I'm given my ballot paper! What a palaver.

 

[markwwfc1992]

If there's not a hefty Tory majority tomorrow morning, I'm on the cans all day

Better get stocked up then.

 

[Alty]

As someone who witnesses Abbott's performance at every Home Office Oral Questions session as well as various other appearances at the House, I can tell you categorically that she's useless. Not on top of her brief at all. And often makes bald assertions she can't back up.

Notwithstanding the ill-advised comments about Finnish nurses and white people, I don't find it hard to believe she's a nice enough person or a decent constituency MP. But that shouldn't shield her from legitimate criticism as a front bench politician.

As an aside - as a result of the disgraceful late smears against Corbs, May's awful campaign and the fact Corbs is a Brexiteer at heart means I made a late switch to Labour when I voted this morning.

Sorry Scummers. I'm just not quite ready yet.

FWIW I see a very slightly increased Tory majority as likely. 30-40 perhaps. Frantic spinning to follow claiming it hasn't been a pyrrhic victory for the PM.

 

[BeesKnees]

My prediction
Con 370
Lab 200
Lib 11
SNP 46

Tory majority 90.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Someone I've seen on Facebook is voting Tory. Reason? "in order to change the Human Rights Law so that we can fix this Country against any threat from terrorist attack!"

Jesus fucking wept.

 

[silkyman]

People voting because they believe the media lies. Got to love democracy.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Sorry Scummers. I'm just not quite ready yet.

You never will be, my soft-headed friend. You never will be.

I tried everything. Years of DM conversation. Weekends at Castle Scumbag. Liking your asinine posts. There always remained a weakness, a defect in character that has made this betrayal – this absurd siding with Abertawe, Ian_Wrexham and the various other left-wing reprobates on here – utterly predictable.

We had a good run, but you are pretty much dead to me now.

Yours, hoping Comrade Corbyn's tax and spend nonsense bankrupts your entire family,

Scumbag

 

[Boletus Edulis]

As I posted earlier this is really hard to predict because of too many variables. However, I suspect that Labour's national vote will be up, and its number of seats down. Complete guess 40-60 seat Tory majority. Interesting that Electoral Calculus is predicting that the Lib Dems will go from 8 to 3 seats and SNP down from 56 to 48.

The insinuations about Diane Abbott are out of order. If they say she is ill just respect it, and leave her alone.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

 

[Benji]

Trying to time my vote for maximum effect. Opted for an inspiring late comeback rather than establishing an early lead and parking the bus.

 

[smat]

Significant late drop (-4) in the Labour vote for Ipsos Mori's final poll.

Landslide incoming?

 

[Jockney]

Significant late drop (-4) in the Labour vote for Ipsos Mori's final poll.

Landslide incoming?

Are IM the polling org that have youth turnout at 40?

 

[Abertawe]

Tories to fall short of a majority by 3-12 seats. Ulster coming to the rescue.

Conservative - 323
Labour - 244
SNP - 52
LD - 9

 

[Hurrikeen]

9/2 for Tory 100-125 majority.

 

[Stevencc]

Has Houghton and Sunderland South declared yet?

 

[HertsWolf]

This is a headline that smacks of very serious, desperate concern.
I suspect the result of this election hinges on the strength of city Scots towards the SNP. And whether Ulster will stand by the Tories.
I can't see much change in the Tory seats in England and Wales.

At a guess:
Tory outright majority of 23 seats. No need for support from Ulster.
Predicted high profile losses...Daniel Zeichner, Tulip Siddiq, Peter Kyle, Nic Dakin (sadly), Kirby in Brighton, Amanda Solloway, Gavin Barwell, Chris "Invisible" Green, Maggie Throup.
Biggest smile of the day: that moment when Paul Nuttall realises the only reason for such large UKIP turnout in Boston and Skegness last time was that the candidate then was a well-known, local young man with several years as a local councillor. Expect to see Nuttall's vote at around 7,000, half what Hunter-Clarke polled. (Meanwhile watch Hunter-Clarke lose his deposit in Pontypridd)