The Play-Off Thead 2....The Sequel...

[oakroader]

Blimey,Luton actually classed as the form team going into the playoffs after only losing 1 game out of the last 10?....

 

[shoddycollins]

Although I lost my post on the possibilities for each team on the final day in the great purge of 2017, we're in luck as it had been reposted on the Cambridge forum before then. Cheers Habbinalan for retrieving it.


THE PLAYOFF SHAKE-UP FINAL DAY SPECIAL

74 - Luton (+25)
73 -
72 -
71 - Exeter (+20)
70 -
69 -
68 - Carlisle (0)
67 - Blackpool (+21) - Stevenage (+7)
66 - Cambridge (+9) - Colchester (+8) - Wycombe (+4)
65 - Mansfield (+4)

Luton
Opponents - Morecambe (H)

Win - Finish 4th

Draw - Finish 4th

Lose - Probably finish 4th barring a 5 goal swing in favour of Exeter who have scored more goals

Luton's position is safe and they will almost certainly finish 4th

Exeter
Opponents - Carlisle (H)

Win - Probably finish 5th barring that 5 goal swing in their favour

Draw - Finish 5th

Lose - Almost certainly finish 5th unless Carlisle beat them by 10 goals.

Exeter are also qualified already and pretty much guaranteed to finish in the position they start the day.

Carlisle
Opponents - Exeter (A)

Win - Almost certainly finish 6th unless they win by 10 goals to go above Exeter.

Draw - Any of Blackpool, Stevenage, Cambridge, Colchester or Wycombe could leapfrog them if they win their games meaning they could still finish 6th if none win, finish 7th if one of them wins, or knocked out of the playoffs if two win. A maximum of four can win as Cambridge and Wycombe can't both win.

Lose - Same as above except it adds Mansfield to the list of teams who could leapfrog them and means Blackpool and Stevenage could both leapfrog them with a draw.

Given their poor goal difference, defeat at Exeter will almost certainly see someone overtake them while a draw is still unlikely to be enough making that game a simple case of win to guarantee playoffs, fail to win and play League Two football again next season. A Cambridge - Wycombe draw will drastically increase their chances should Carlisle also draw as it would mean two from only three need win.

Blackpool
Opponents - Leyton Orient (H)

Win - Goal difference means that if they win they will almost certainly finish above Stevenage so a win should see them either remain in 7th or go above Carlisle into 6th should Carlisle fail to beat Exeter.

Draw - Any of Stevenage, Cambridge, Colchester or Wycombe could go above them with a win (Mansfield highly unlikely to given the goal difference) though they in turn would go above Carlisle should Carlisle lose. If Carlisle lose then two of those listed above winning would put Blackpool out of the playoffs, though Cambridge and Wycombe can't both win, if Carlisle don't lose then one of them winning would be enough to knock Blackpool out.

Lose - Similar to above although wouldn't be able to finish above Carlisle so only one of the above teams winning, or Stevenage getting a point would knock Blackpool out.

Blackpool seem to have the easiest final game of all, but if they fail to win it then there's maybe a 50/50 chance they'll be knocked out, especially if Carlisle win. A Carlisle failure to win and Cambridge Wycombe draw would probably make a draw enough for Blackpool.

Stevenage
Opponents - Accrington (H)

Win - Could go above either or both of Blackpool and Carlisle and into the playoffs should those clubs fail to win (level on points with Blackpool if Blackpool win but unlikely to go above them given the goal difference)

Draw - A draw would put them above Blackpool should Blackpool lose though Blackpool avoiding defeat would remain ahead of them, It will be good enough to go above Carlisle should the latter lose. But any of Colchester, Cambridge and Wycombe could go above Stevenage with wins and Mansfield too should they win their game by four or more goals.

Lose - Defeat and they could only make the playoffs in the extremely unlikely event of the teams below them all losing and Blackpool being beaten by 14 goals.

Stevenage pretty much need to win, they have only an outside chance of making the playoffs with a draw that involves either Blackpool losing at home to Orient, or Carlisle losing, Cambridge and Wycombe drawing, Colchester failing to win and Mansfield failing to win by enough to turn around the goal difference.

Cambridge
Opponents - Wycombe (A)

Win - Could go as high as 6th should Carlisle, Stevenage and Blackpool all fail to win, any two of those three teams failing to win could see Cambridge into the playoffs, but with Colchester only one behind on goal difference and having scored more goals, Cambridge could win and yet be leapfrogged by Colchester.

Draw - won't be enough unless Blackpool were to get thrashed by Orient, it would please most of the other teams in contention though.

Lose - won't be enough

Cambridge need to win, and even then the permutations of goal difference with Colchester could make it nervy for them. Imagine a situation where Cambridge are 1-0 up but Colchester are also 1-0 up and a second goal for Colchester will put them ahead of Cambridge, potentially putting Cambridge out of the playoffs. The fact they play level-on-points Wycombe will interest nearly everyone else in the shake-up.

Colchester
Opponents - Yeovil (H)

Win - Could go as high as 6th should Carlisle, Stevenage, Blackpool and Cambridge all fail to win, any three of those four teams failing to win should see Colchester into the playoffs and with Cambridge only one ahead on goal difference and having scored fewer goals, Cambridge could win and yet be leapfrogged by Colchester. Wycombe are four on goal difference behind Colchester which means a less probable swing would be required for them to do the same to Colchester.

Draw - won't be enough, even if Blackpool were to be thrashed by Orient then, one of Cambridge and Wycombe would finish above them as would Carlisle.

Lose - won't be enough

Colchester need to win, but actually have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs if they do that, especially as they face a poor Yeovil side while Cambridge and Wycombe slog out a tense finish, and a sliding Stevenage play half-decent Accrington.

Wycombe
Opponents - Cambridge (H)

Win - Could go as high as 6th should Carlisle, Stevenage, Blackpool and Colchester all fail to win, any three of those four teams failing to win could see Wycombe into the playoffs. They have the poorest goal difference of the teams on 66 and would need at least a 4 goal swing

Draw - won't be enough given the poorer goal difference they would remain behind Cambridge for certain.

Lose - won't be enough

Wycombe look much more like outsiders because of their goal difference compared to Colchester. While they could beat Cambridge to go above them, they still realistically need Colchester to fail to beat Yeovil in addition to required results involving Stevenage, Blackpool and Carlisle.

Mansfield
Opponents - Crawley (A)

Win - Could go as high as 6th if Carlisle lose, but in order to make the playoffs would need four from Blackpool, Stevenage, Colchester, Cambridge and Wycombe to draw. Should Carlisle draw or win then Mansfield need all five of those teams to fail to win.

Draw - Won't be enough

Lose - Won't be enough

Should they win, Mansfield will have a very slim chance of getting into the playoffs, but realistically they're pretty much nailed on to be playing League Two football next season.


My personal view is that Blackpool and Colchester will be making the playoffs (two teams I've been predicting to do well for most of the season). Also, had we only hung on last weekend against Crawley instead of conceding that shit-awful equaliser then the Exeter-Carlisle game would probably be one where both teams are content to play out a draw.

 

[dedwardp]

Blackpool are in there, they are bound to beat Orient at home (he assumes) so it just leaves the final spot up for grabs.

For us, you'd like to think we can beat Yeovil at home when we need a result, especially with our excellent home record. Cambridge at Wycombe is a tricky one, Wycombe will be difficult for Cambridge given that they could also still squeeze in mathematically. We just then need Exeter and Accrington to get a point in their games so still very doable, although it does still feel like we need quite a few favours from elsewhere.

 

[Tom_CUFC]

Depends a lot on what sort of team Exeter put out, but I have this horrible feeling it'll be Colchester from us on goals scored, I'd rather just lose than miss out like that....

 

[hellogregory]

I predict it will finish....

4. Luton
5. Exeter
6. Blackpool
7. Colchester

 

[Bosox]

This season has been filled with frustration at the poor performances and general lack of any competent midfield but I'd have definitely signed up for 4th place and a shot at the playoffs back in August. At least Luton are making progress after John Still failed to build on promotion from the Conference.

I can't really imagine Luton winning the playoffs given their huge and obvious flaws but the other teams in the mix do look pretty weak so you never know.

 

[Trapdoor]

wouldn't fancy our chances against luton or blackpool.
the playoff final (if we get there!) is always a pure lottery which either side could win. Form and team quality count for surprisingly little in these kinds of matches.

 

[oakroader]

these games always seem to favor the "underdog" for some reason...at least it does in our case....

 

[hellogregory]

Better hope you get Exeter in the final then

 

[dedwardp]

We've taken six points from Luton, four from Blackpool, four from Cambridge, three from Carlisle and six from Wycombe, it's only Exeter who we've failed to beat/have beaten us twice. Still wouldn't fancy us to get anywhere though even if we did make it, even more so now that Dickenson has joined the list of injuries.

 

[Camborne Gills]

Exeter please. That is all.

 

[The Terminator]

Blackpool are 100% in, they have the easiest game tomorrow - At home to our youth team!

We will either fight hard and go down in the final 20mins, or get totally out classed by more senior players, like at Crewe a few weeks ago.

Either way we will lose!

Winner of Carlisle v Exeter will take all...........

 

[shoddycollins]

Blackpool are 100% in, they have the easiest game tomorrow - At home to our youth team!

We will either fight hard and go down in the final 20mins, or get totally out classed by more senior players, like at Crewe a few weeks ago.

Either way we will lose!

Winner of Carlisle v Exeter will take all...........

Exeter have already taken all.

 

[dedwardp]

Winner of Carlisle v Exeter will take all...........

If Exeter win though then it still leaves the final spot up for grabs between Stevenage, us and Cambridge/Wycombe. So not quite all.

 

[The Terminator]

Ah yes, silly me. Didn't look hard enough at the table.

Blackpool will beat us, so the rest of you are on your own I'm afraid!

 

[shoddycollins]

its in our hands. So why do i feel that out of everyone, we're the least likely to make the playoffs.

 

[hellogregory]

its in our hands. So why do i feel that out of everyone, we're the least likely to make the playoffs.

Probably a mix of having the toughest game away against one of the best teams in the league and our recent track record of failing to see out games.


As I said in the other thread, I have no expectations today. I came to terms with no playoffs weeks ago. As far as I'm concerned our season ends today, there's no way this team will go to Exeter and win.

 

[Kenneth E End]

We've taken six points from Luton

Colchester, Stevenage and Portsmouth are the only teams this season to have beaten us twice. I'd want to avoid Colchester (and Blackpool despite us beating them twice) in the play offs. Stevenage I'd actually fancy us beating over 2 legs on current form.

Other than these teams only Crawley, Grimsby and Cheltenham have beaten us this season in the league.

 

[dedwardp]

Colchester, Stevenage and Portsmouth are the only teams this season to have beaten us twice. I'd want to avoid Colchester (and Blackpool despite us beating them twice) in the play offs. Stevenage I'd actually fancy us beating over 2 legs on current form.

Other than these teams only Crawley, Grimsby and Cheltenham have beaten us this season in the league.

If we did manage to make it by some stroke of good fortune, I'd imagine we would be playing Luton. Think it would be tight but imagine we would lose, especially with the second leg away from home. Still, Luton away on a Thursday night would be far more preferable to Exeter away! I'll take anything though if we can somehow squeeze in.

 

[Kenneth E End]

If we did manage to make it by some stroke of good fortune, I'd imagine we would be playing Luton. Think it would be tight but imagine we would lose, especially with the second leg away from home. Still, Luton away on a Thursday night would be far more preferable to Exeter away! I'll take anything though if we can somehow squeeze in.

The timings are rubbish today and the timings for the play offs rubbish too. A potential trip to Blackpool or Carlisle next Sunday night. I'm genuinely looking at flying back on Monday morning, as I work in London.

 

[dedwardp]

The timings are rubbish today and the timings for the play offs rubbish too. A potential trip to Blackpool or Carlisle next Sunday night. I'm genuinely looking at flying back on Monday morning, as I work in London.

Don't really get it myself - even the Conference play-offs, it's been 7.45pm kick offs all season for midweek games but then the two this week have both kicked off at 7.00pm. Makes no sense to me.

 

[hellogregory]

If somehow we got in the playoffs, based on what I've seen this season I'd prefer Stevenage or Luton. Luton seems a ridiculous choice given their league position but they were average on both occasions we played them this season as were we, and likewise Stevenage. Blackpool are by far the best I've seen out of the contenders, Exeter were impressive at our place and Colchester demolished our woeful defence at their place.

 

[oakroader]

Potential play-off headlines....
Looton v Excreter ....
The game of thrones
Utter toilet
Two shit teams
I'm glad I passed on that one!
Excreter caught with their pants down
On paper..Looton deserve to wipe out Excreter...

 

[Laker]

My thinking is that Blackpool will win and the most Carlisle will get is a draw. So it'll come down to whether Stevenage win which I think they will. So I'm going for:

Luton v Stevenage
Exeter v Blackpool

If Stevenage fail to win too then I'd expect Colchester to get in next. If we somehow beat Wycombe, I expect Colchester to out score us anyway.

Our chances are 5% at best. Too many "ifs" in there.

 

[Habbinalan]

My thinking is that Blackpool will win and the most Carlisle will get is a draw. So it'll come down to whether Stevenage win which I think they will. So I'm going for:

Luton v Stevenage
Exeter v Blackpool

If Stevenage fail to win too then I'd expect Colchester to get in next. If we somehow beat Wycombe, I expect Colchester to out score us anyway.

Our chances are 5% at best. Too many "ifs" in there.

I agree, so much so that I haven't even thought about the play-off permutations.

Interestingly, the bookies are less sure. The best odds you can get for a CUFC Top 7 finish are U's less than 7/1, whilst Colchester are around 3/1 and Carlisle less than 2/1 (similar to Stevenage).

I'm hoping we'll "somehow beat Wycombe" but at the moment it feels like we're going through the motions and it's going to be a long Saturday.

Hoping to beat my record for Red Kite sightings as a minor distraction. Double figures would be good but not as good as a 2 - 0 win.

 

[Laker]

I agree, so much so that I haven't even thought about the play-off permutations.

Interestingly, the bookies are less sure. The best odds you can get for a CUFC Top 7 finish are U's less than 7/1, whilst Colchester are around 3/1 and Carlisle less than 2/1 (similar to Stevenage).

I'm hoping we'll "somehow beat Wycombe" but at the moment it feels like we're going through the motions and it's going to be a long Saturday.

Hoping to beat my record for Red Kite sightings as a minor distraction. Double figures would be good but not as good as a 2 - 0 win.

I'm no ornithologist however I think there's more chance of seeing double figure red kites than a 2-0 win.

I would actually take as much joy from seeing us stick one over Wycombe than reaching the play offs. They've always done us over with some shady business so it'd be nice to put them in their place, regardless of it still means we fall short.

 

[hellogregory]

Just whacked £100 on carlisle to finish outside of the top 7. Easy money.

 

[Habbinalan]

Just whacked £100 on carlisle to finish outside of the top 7. Easy money.

Who do I claim my commission from?

 

[Kenneth E End]

If somehow we got in the playoffs, based on what I've seen this season I'd prefer Stevenage or Luton. Luton seems a ridiculous choice given their league position but they were average on both occasions we played them this season as were we, and likewise Stevenage. Blackpool are by far the best I've seen out of the contenders, Exeter were impressive at our place and Colchester demolished our woeful defence at their place.

But as I say, we've beaten Blackpool twice but lost to Stevenage twice.
Its all on the day. These a League 2 teams with League 2 players - inconsistency.
If either of the play off contenders showed a modicum of consistency throughout the season, they would've been promoted already.

 

[hellogregory]

But as I say, we've beaten Blackpool twice but lost to Stevenage twice.
Its all on the day. These a League 2 teams with League 2 players - inconsistency.
If either of the play off contenders showed a modicum of consistency throughout the season, they would've been promoted already.

Yeah that's why I said based on the games I've seen. Obviously you can't have been as shit in other games as you were at Brunton Park.