European Union Referendum

How do you see yourself voting?


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    161

Indian Dan

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UJ conveniently cropped from your avatar, eh.

Mind you, I bet a penny to a pound of pig shit, you abhor anyone displaying the flag of St George. Cos they’re all racist, little Englanders, ain’t they.
 

claret50

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She taught me how to winkle 'em.
Did you use a needle to winkle the 'eye's out before removing them from their shells? hope you splashed some vinegar on them too, we had a winkle man with his horse drawn cart come down our street every Sunday afternoon and it was my job to go down for a pint of the little creatures for our tea, I didn't fancy them one bit when we were in Walthamstow market last year though, went a bit further down the high street to Manzes pie & mash shop and had some of that.
 

Cornish Piskie

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UJ conveniently cropped from your avatar, eh.

Mind you, I bet a penny to a pound of pig shit, you abhor anyone displaying the flag of St George. Cos they’re all racist, little Englanders, ain’t they.

No actually, it's called the Cornish Ensign, it's a recognised flag registered with the UK Flag Registry and Lloyds of London, and it's flown from fishing vessels and other local private and commercial craft.

There. You've learned something today.


 

Cornish Piskie

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Did you use a needle to winkle the 'eye's out before removing them from their shells? hope you splashed some vinegar on them too, we had a winkle man with his horse drawn cart come down our street every Sunday afternoon and it was my job to go down for a pint of the little creatures for our tea, I didn't fancy them one bit when we were in Walthamstow market last year though, went a bit further down the high street to Manzes pie & mash shop and had some of that.

Got to have vinegar with winkles. That's the law.

There used to be a Manze's in Woolwich, just off the market place and close to the Arsenal station. Did you have proper Licker with your pie..?

The Manze's in Woolwich was before my time but I was told they used to keep a tank of live eels in the window for customers to choose their own and they'd cook 'em up for you.
 

claret50

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Yep, real green liquor poured over double pie & double mash, not sure if the eel tank is there or not as I couldn't stand the sight of eels swimming about in the tank waiting to be cut up, always remember my old Mum picking one out to be jellied though, the one in Walthamstow is now a grade 2 listed building, in the photo the lady pouring the liquor is the current owner.
 

Cornish Piskie

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If you really want to annoy a Brexiter, tell him that he hates Europe. He’ll probably tell you that he doesn’t hate Europe, he just hates the EU.

That has been Farage’s shtick all along. The nicotine stained man-frog took Britain out of the world’s most ambitious, forward looking pan-national bloc but he’ll tell you how he worked for a French firm, takes his holidays on the continent, did business in Italy, married a German (she’s left him) and has two bilingual children.

Leavers, like Farage, see Europe as their playground. Just a short, cheap hop across the Channel from their jealously guarded, insular kingdom. Crass and shallow, Little Englanders think they can have it all. They barely understand their own country and even less, multicultural and sophisticated Europe.

Historically, the English looked across the sea. We were restless, covetous, curious and eager for connections to the wider world and trade. Our greatest British writers felt part of the European civilisations. Imagine Shakespeare without Rome, Venice, Padua, Verona, Spain, France and Greece.

We were stimulated by the Renaissance, the Reformation and the age of enlightenment. Our Queen is German, Prince Philip is Greek. How on earth were those who voted Leave persuaded that we were never truly Europeans? It was a mixture of arrogance and ignorance. A very English mix.

Andrew Marr once wrote that “The English have long felt themselves to be better than the untrustworthy and unstable peoples around them”.

And that’s so typical of the British. The noisy Brexit gang lied not only about money and immigration, they wilfully repudiated most of the historical and cultural ties that bind us to the mainland. Since the end of the Bronze Age, the Channel has seen trade criss-cross in both directions but this barely registers in the consciousness of the Brexiter. We are emotionally attached to the world wars but don’t realise that the EU came out of that darkness.

Journalist Tom Peck wrote in the Independent that generations have been taught: “The British are at their best when their young men are fighting against the nations that are now our friends and neighbours.” Our grandparents still hand this message down, and Brexiters absorb it, eagerly looking forward to the day when they will pass the same message onto their grandchildren.

Farage urged young people to see the movie “Dunkirk”. David Davis evoked the war in an attempt to stir up nationalist post-Brexit fervour. Apparently, “We won the war” is all we need to know about Europe.

Europe’s history is savage, bloody and inhuman well as enlightened and progressive. The British have been a part of all of that from exploration and colonialism to the endless conflicts, cold war and eventually to globalisation.

Britain was built by the Romans. Vikings settled here in the 4th century. By the 13th century our markets flourished with French, Venetian and Flemish buyers and sellers. The Black Plague of 1348 killed a third of the British population and it was Europeans who flooded in to fill labour shortages.

Migrants coming here to work is not a 21st century phenomenon.

Do all the Brexiters realise that despised and persecuted French protestant refugees helped to create the Bank of England..? Or that several founder members of the Royal College of Physicians were German..? Read Robert Winder’s book Bloody Foreigners to see how Europe made Britain.

Rudyard Kipling was an imperialist Briton but even he saw the perils of foolish pride and senseless prejudices. His words resound today:

Winds of the world give answer. They are whimpering to and fro
And what should they know of England, who only England know?
The poor little street bred people that vapour and fume and brag
They are lifting their heads in the stillness to yelp at the English flag


In June 2016, those street people, ill advised, used and betrayed by manipulative scoundrels cut us off from our continent. And they still fume, vapour and brag.

Sadly, few of them will ever see the light or admit they were wrong.

And so it will probably come to pass. This small, dull island. Grey and inward looking, with shops full of pies and chips and with our beloved blue passports in our pockets.

Because in the end, that’s what it’s all about.
 

Indian Dan

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What a diatribe that was. Even without Brexit the EU project will fall apart. It is responsible for the resurgence in the far right in France, Germany, The Netherlands et al. My support for Brexit has nothing to do with pesky foreigners or hankering after some sort of colonial past. The whole concept is evil and will lead to a dreadful future for Europe.
 

Cornish Piskie

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Marine le Pen was defeated in France, and I'm quite sure that Dirk would be able to inform us how things are in Germany. I - and I suspect most posters on this site - will have the utmost trust in his honesty, objectivity and integrity.

I think we should agree to disagree on what the future of Europe will be and allow time to tell.

As for Britain, well, let's look at some plusses and minuses so far.

What Britain has achieved since June 2016:

* Blue passports



What Britain has suffered since June 2016 (and we're not even out of the EU yet. The list below is not "as bad as it gets", this is just the beginning)

* The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded UK growth for the next five years
* The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says the UK went from top of the G7 growth list to the bottom in the year following the EU vote
* The Centre for Economic Policy Research calculates that the Brexit vote is already costing the UK economy £300m a week.
* Food prices are growing at their fastest rate for 4 years.
* Inflation is over 3% for the first time in nearly 6 years.
* The Centre for Economic Performance says that the Brexit vote is costing the average household £404 per year.
* The Nursing and Midwifery Council says applications from EU nurses to work in the UK have fallen 89% since the referendum.
* The government has said it is not bound to honour the pledge to spend an extra £350m on the NHS, I bet they don't put that on the side of a bus..!!
* In the Social Care sector and agricultural industry labour shortages are already being described as "catastropic" as migrant workers leave and are not replaced.
* Teresa May has agreed to an EU exit bill which she admits could cost between £35 - £39 billion.
* The government has set aside £3 billion over two years to prepare for Brexit.
* National Audit Office says almost 2'500 civil service posts have already been created to deal with Brexit. So much for cutting red tape..!!


Blue passports. That makes everything worthwhile, eh..?
 

Indian Dan

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https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/rise-nationalists-guide-europe-s-far-right-parties

It may seem glib to say I don’t care too much about what may happen, but any organisation that is, largely, unelected and unaccountable can’t be a force for good.

They have thrown the young people of Southern Europe to the wolves with over 25% unemployment and no prospect of it getting better. It is fostering discontent and will, eventually, blow.

If you want to get rid of the useless Tories running Brexit for us, we had the chance to 18 months ago. Who elected and how to we get rid of Barnier and Juncker?

Too many people want government to wipe their arses for them, mollycoddled from cradle to grave.
 
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Cornish Piskie

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Thrown the young people of Southern Europe to the wolves.

Hmmm. Interesting. But let's see what research funded by the Economic and Social Research Council has to say.


See the links to a report regarding the potential impact of Brexit on Britain and Europe as a whole.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334/full

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/036c...=max&dpr=2&s=ce8e8ec5589efaeb8ac679d782c83aae

The darker the green patches, the more serious the economic damage.

This research was the subject of an article in The Guardian. Some of the key points highlighted by the newspaper are:

* The UK regions are far more exposed than anywhere else in Europe, with regions in Ireland closely behind
* The UK regions which voted leave are more exposed than those which voted Remain
* The UK is 4.6 times more exposed than the rest of the EU - with the majority of EU countries facing almost no exposure at all - which means that in economic terms the UK is in a very weak bargaining position.
* Results show that 2.64% of EU GDP is at risk because of Brexit trade related consequences. In the UK, Brexit trade related risks account for 12.2% of UK GDP.
* The highest levels of regional GDP exposure to Brexit in the UK are found in many of the UK’s non-core regions in the Midlands and in the North of England.

One of the conclusions of the report says:

"The UK is far more dependent on a relatively seamless and comprehensive free trade deal than the other EU member states. Mercantilist arguments popular in the UK media, which posit that the UK trade deficit with the rest of Europe implies that on economic grounds other EU member states will be eager to agree a free trade deal with the UK, are not correct."

So much for "They need us as much as we need them."

Now, regardless of whether you're a Tory or a Socialist (I'm neither) the bald message of this particular study is that Britain is not only way up a certain sort of creek without a paddle, but there's a hole in the boat and the lifejackets have been sold to pay for the trip.

The countries of Southern Europe seem to be heading for relatively serene waters. Which rather contradicts your comment.

Now, I'm not an economist, but I've a) checked out the credentials of the sponsoring organisation and the authors as far as is possible online and b) I've had a bash at understanding the data and analysis. As far as I can tell it looks like a pretty comprehensive bit of work to me. If anybody on this site knows better please tell us where it goes wrong.
 

Ebeneezer Goode

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The people predicting doom today are largely the same sort of people that said we'd be left out in the cold if we didn't adopt the Euro.
 

Cornish Piskie

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The people predicting doom today are largely the same sort of people that said we'd be left out in the cold if we didn't adopt the Euro.

But bearing in mind the weight of evidence that is appearing, do they (Remainers) not have a point.?

All the details I have been pointing to in long, very detailed posts throughout this thread is real and true. I'm not making any of it up. And we haven't even left the EU yet.

I don't want to accuse Brexiters of burying their heads in the sand, but I'm afraid I have to say that there must come a time when Leaver's have to proverbially wake up and smell the coffee.

If, on the other hand, you can point to successes, or even just tangible, credible encouragement for the future then I'd be receptive to it. Hey, I live in UK too. My shopping basket is getting more expensive too you know. Please..... PLEASE.... tell us when there's going to be some gravy, and where it's going to come from.
 

Ebeneezer Goode

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But bearing in mind the weight of evidence that is appearing, do they (Remainers) not have a point.?
What weight of evidence is that? Almost all of the bad news is projections and guesstimates (based on a future deal we're inherently ignorant of) from those very same people, all of which have to be revised up again every time the any-minute-now economic apocalypse fails to materialise.
 

Cornish Piskie

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I feel as if I’m banging my head against a brick wall here. The concrete monolith of the Brexit mentality.

I posted a piece of sound, reasoned, well researched, peer reviewed evidence compiled by respected academics in their field, sponsored by a responsible, ethical organisation for the purpose of intelligent discussion by open minded adults. What do I get in response..? “Statistics. Bad numbers. Ahhhhhhh”

On what analysis of the document does Laker come to the conclusion that any of it is “Bad Numbers?” Or is it just a knee-jerk response to a piece of evidence he doesn’t like the look of..?

I suggest it is simply instant dismissal with probably the flimsiest of glances at the weight of evidence, the depth of analysis and the reasoned conclusions, if that. That’s the Brexit mentality for you.

Ebenezer, my friend, these are not “guesstimates”. These are reasoned conclusions and projections, compiled by professionals. Have you even read any of what that report said…?

It’s been my disappointing experience that, in any discussion on the subject, Brexiters say “Where is the evidence that Brexit won’t work?” It doesn’t matter what anybody says. All arguments are dismissed as “Project Fear”. The default, one size fits all cliché of the Brexiter.


So I’ll change tack. I would like to alternatively ask you what evidence there is that there will be any good to Brexit. Specifically, can you please tell us:


* When will we see this £350m per week to the NHS…?
* When will the EU cave in and give us a cherry picking deal that delivers exactly what we had before, without any commitment whatsoever…?
* Where are all these trade deals from the wider world that were supposed to fall into our hands and bring instant prosperity..?
* We were told Brexit would close our borders to migrants and yet we have an unfenced, unguarded land border (Northern Ireland) with the EU that will allow migrants to walk into Britain unimpeded. We were told, in imperious tones, that Britain would set up a migration office in Dublin, or in other words, put the British border on Irish soil. We forgot to ask the Irish government what they thought of that idea. It turns out that they don’t seem to like it.
* The EU is labelled “undemocratic” and yet a private citizen, Gina Miller, had to take the government to court in order to get a democratic vote for Parliament over Article 50. The government wanted to railroad it through without consultation or opposition. How is that “democratic”?
* We were told leaving the EU would “Take back control” or our own democracy, and yet, the government doesn’t even want to give Parliament a say in the final deal, much less put it to the people. They want to put the power to unilaterally decide, without consultation, what our future will be, into the hands of a few rabid right wing anti-Europeans. Do you seriously call that democracy..?
* Why has the government felt it necessary to appoint – at even more public expense - a “Minister For No Deal” to prepare the way for that eventuality..? Rather than a sensible move to cover all the bases, isn’t it an admission that they expect to get….. er…. a No Deal outcome..? Isn’t this post in reality a Minister for Failure?


All of those campaign promises show no evidence that they will ever be realised, and yet we still hear Brexiters tell us that we are going to be better off, as inflation rises, businesses struggle with uncertainty and our government stumbles from crisis after crisis, every one of its own making.

I fear the mentality of the average Brexiter is that the consequences of this folly are not important. Brexit is an end in itself. What becomes of the country after that is irrelevant because all they care about is making it happen regardless of how it affects the country.

Brexit must happen at all costs. That is the Brexiter mantra. Nothing else matters.
 

Ebeneezer Goode

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Ebenezer, my friend, these are not “guesstimates”. These are reasoned conclusions and projections, compiled by professionals. Have you even read any of what that report said…?
I didn't mention the report, though ironically enough it's introduction pretty much echoes what I just said about Brexit projections.
 

Laker

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Mr or Mrs Pickle, before and since the vote we have been bombarded with link after link and statistic after statistic from this government source, that independent body, this thinktank etc which have told us that Brexit is bad. As has already been pointed out, these are projections and estimates at this stage as these are based on the fact that the outcome is not yet known.

Therefore to place so much weight on this evidence which uses such large assumptions as opposed to actual fact is naive at best. This was the reason for my immature response - if you take offence in that then that’s up to you. I wasn’t going to comment at all as you are searching for an argument using a basis which I don’t see as relevant.

For example there is no way that anyone can state that Brexit is already costing the UK £300m per week - do they have the “remain scenario” running in the background in an alternative universe for direct comparison? No.

Many of the numbers quoted are “risk areas” - we’re still in the middle of negotiations and the position is not determined yet. The fact 97.36% of our GDP isn’t at risk at all suggests the deep and dark recession predicted by the Cameron and Osbourne campaign isn’t true at all since somewhere between 0%-2.64% is the maximum hit. And that’s excluding further trade opportunities with the rest of the world which I’d imagine aren’t even factored in to that number.

My position is this: economic models stripped back as far as supply and demand mean that while the initial outcome may not be at equilibrium for both sides, our relationship with the EU will ultimately tend that way at some point in the future as it’s in the interest of both sides.

It seems to me the area most likely to be hit hardest is our finance sector. Most people, myself included, actually see this as a good thing - our economy has not been balanced for a long time as our service sector has dominated. After the banking crisis in the late noughties, most people hated bankers and felt they held too risky positions.

Finally I’d like to ask you Cornish, let’s say we follow Vince and Tony’s suggestion to have another referendum and ignore the first one. And let’s say the result was “remain” (though I still think it would go “leave” personally based on remain and leave voters I’ve spoken to). We’ve activated article 50 and the EU have accepted it. Do you really think they’ll accept us revoking it, and furthermore do you really think they’ll take us back in on the same terms? The answer is clearly no. We’d have no rebate, no vetoes etc, our position would be far weaker than it was. The remain argument seems to be a very negative damage limitation whereas the leave argument sees this as an opportunity.

Finally, the last point I’d like to make is your post stated many opinions as fact - “leavers think this”, “the British think that”. I take offence to people telling me what I think as none of what you said was true. I don’t hate Europe, I quite like it. I just feel that our company will be better governed entirely by our own elected parliament, not by the EU who in my opinion add a layer of complexity, rigidity, bureaucracy and cost (the EU is already hunting around to cover the UK’s net contribution post Brexit - didn’t see that mentioned in your statistics). It’s not about my feelings of our wars or any of those other “facts” you put forward. If you pigeon hole people and tell people what they think (which is a Tony Blair trait actually) then funnily enough people will not like it.
 

Indian Dan

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Good to see UK growth at its highest for 10 years.

Just goes to show that all these so called expert forecasters know jack shit. On a par with the useless pollsters.

It was only a month ago they were downgrading UK growth. Shysters.
 

mowgli

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Good to see UK growth at its highest for 10 years.

Just goes to show that all these so called expert forecasters know jack shit. On a par with the useless pollsters.

It was only a month ago they were downgrading UK growth. Shysters.
And over 30 countries have said they want a trade deal with The UK after we leave The EU.
 

PuB

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Farage is only a thing when he's attention seeking, now he's not UKIP leader or licking Trump's arse, he's nothing.

Maybe he's cold in the wilderness.
 

silkyman

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Macclesfield Town/Manchester City. It's complicated.
Interesting that Leave.EU have also come out and said the same thing.
 

Laker

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As a leaver is hard to have an opinion on a second referendum without sounding like you’re biased in your view and therefore you can come across as scared. I actually think the result would be “leave” again and therefore having another referendum would I guess “double lock” it in. But I have three problems with it:

1. We were told this was a once in a lifetime decision. If the result had gone the other way, I doubt there would have been anywhere this much pressure to have another referendum this quickly, we’d be told that’s it for a generation and to suck it up.

2. Assuming we did vote “remain”, I’m not sure the EU would exactly welcome us back with open arms and it certainly wouldn’t be on the same terms that we already had - Article 50 is in motion now, I’m not sure it can just be aborted.

3. If we did vote “remain”, that would make it 1-1 so do we then need a deciding referendum to determine our action? There would be claims/counter claims etc. It would be farcical.
 

.V.

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As a leaver is hard to have an opinion on a second referendum without sounding like you’re biased in your view and therefore you can come across as scared. I actually think the result would be “leave” again and therefore having another referendum would I guess “double lock” it in. But I have three problems with it:

1. We were told this was a once in a lifetime decision. If the result had gone the other way, I doubt there would have been anywhere this much pressure to have another referendum this quickly, we’d be told that’s it for a generation and to suck it up.

2. Assuming we did vote “remain”, I’m not sure the EU would exactly welcome us back with open arms and it certainly wouldn’t be on the same terms that we already had - Article 50 is in motion now, I’m not sure it can just be aborted.

3. If we did vote “remain”, that would make it 1-1 so do we then need a deciding referendum to determine our action? There would be claims/counter claims etc. It would be farcical.
1-1? It should go straight to a penalty shoot out I think.
 

Ebeneezer Goode

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As a leaver is hard to have an opinion on a second referendum without sounding like you’re biased in your view and therefore you can come across as scared. I actually think the result would be “leave” again and therefore having another referendum would I guess “double lock” it in. But I have three problems with it:

1. We were told this was a once in a lifetime decision. If the result had gone the other way, I doubt there would have been anywhere this much pressure to have another referendum this quickly, we’d be told that’s it for a generation and to suck it up.

2. Assuming we did vote “remain”, I’m not sure the EU would exactly welcome us back with open arms and it certainly wouldn’t be on the same terms that we already had - Article 50 is in motion now, I’m not sure it can just be aborted.

3. If we did vote “remain”, that would make it 1-1 so do we then need a deciding referendum to determine our action? There would be claims/counter claims etc. It would be farcical.
Article 50 can only be aborted with the consent of every EU member state.
 

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