The Labour Thread

[smat]

snip

ah yes i was erm... joking

 

[Aber gas]

I don't see how he can balance everything. Some issues I think will just be killers for the party, like Trident.

Say they put it on the debating schedule for the party conference in 12 months time. All indicators said had it been debated at the last conference and put to a vote, the party would have voted in favour of keeping it. What a huge black eye for Corbyn that would have been, especially when you have cheerleaders like McCluskey wanting to see it kept. Ok, what happens if it had been voted to be scrapped and adopted as policy. Well, again there were indicators that Corbyn would have faced a raft of shadow cabinet resignations. Tom Watson wants it kept, as do a number of senior MPs. So for me, he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. And thats just 1 issue.

I'll be honest, I don't see him ever speaking to middle class England and helping Labour claw back some of the seats they lost. I don't see him making inroads into Tory safe seats. Yeah, sure, great, he gets 10k to turn up in Manchester and has loads of people joining the Labour party. But what happens if the majority of those new supporters are registered voters in the safe Labour seats anyway, which I reckon might well be the case. Well, all that new support will mean naff all come the next generals.

And what about Scotland? With the Tories forcing Scottish voters into the arms of Sturgeon, I don't think Labour and Corbyn have a cat in hells chance of clawing back any of the 40 seats they lost in May. Without those seats, how can Labour, with or without Corbyn, ever expect to get power back? I doubt the Tories are at all worried about him

That's just my opinion anyway. Don't be too harsh on me, I'm no expert on the subject. Out of interest, seeing how there is a large red population on this board, can someone convince me that Corbyn can unite the party and start them on the road to recovery over the next few years? Can someone make an argument that he can make Labour electable at the next generals? Because I simply don't see it.

This aged well LOL

 

[Aber gas]

Get used to it. It's going to be like this until the day he leaves office. If this annoys you, I'd hate to see what mood you'll be in should he still be Labour leader come the next generals.

Lol

 

[Aber gas]

I don't wish to piss on your chips (all power to you if you want to get involved), but I honestly doubt whether local politics, community activism and so forth actually has much bearing on how people vote in a General Election.

The basic problem is, a sensible democracy would separate the election of the executive and the legislature. But we don't. For some reason, we lazily bung the two tasks together. So while we officially go to the ballot box and vote for a parliamentary candidate (i.e. someone to represent our constituency in the legislature), virtually no one votes with that as their principal concern. Most cast their vote hoping (not unreasonably) that it will decide who forms the next government.

Even folk who recognise this design flaw – boring political nerds like me, basically –struggle with it. It doesn't matter how many times the SNP turn up on my doorstep, or how much brilliant campaign literature they stuff through my letterbox, or how effectively they organise and support projects to improve the local community. I would never vote for their candidate because I don't want them to form the next government. So I'll do what I always do, which is vote for whatever Tarquin Twiddle-Arse Gobshite Tory HQ bungs our way, even if he's a complete imbecile.

I'm not saying local/community activism is a waste of time. It's important and worthwhile for various reasons, and it's certainly not going to do any harm. My simple contention is that a General Election is pretty much won or lost on the national level, and on that level you have to reckon with the national media. I suspect mnb098mnb was being rhetorical when he asked about Ed Miliband. Brother Ed didn't lose because there was a dearth of people handing out campaign literature in Grimsby. He lost because he looked more like a muppet than a Prime Minister and because he failed to communicate clear and popular messages on various issues of national importance.

Nope.

 

[Benji]

Scumbag's point still rang true, it just went the opposite way with Corbyn.

 

[Aber gas]

I feel sad to say it, but I think he's totally unelectable. If Labour go with him as leader into the next election, they will be annihilated.

No words

 

[Aber gas]

Now those idiots have seen their worst nightmare happen and regret it. The electorate rejected previous far left leaders like Foot,Kinnock and Miliband as a joke,being a dreamer doesn't make a good party leader. I despise the Tories but we will never get rid of them with Corbyn as a despotic leader,he's a man that voted over 500 times against his party's policies but now demands total obedience from his MP's,what a hypocrite!

This is bad.

 

[Aber gas]

He's a danger to national security because he is a fucking idiot who continues to grab onto power despite the fact that he has no chance in hell of being elected. The longer he holds on, the more and more likely we have another conservative government. The fact that an opposition is doing so poorly when the government is doing so much shit says it all.

Hmmm....

 

[Aber gas]

His party won a by election in a safe labour seat. If you look at the polls( which whilst have a large margin of error), every single one of them shows labour performing at its worst level ever. The labour members I know who voted for him are being increasingly turned off by his actions.

Good stuff again...

 

[Aber gas]

When was the last time we had neither an effective government or an effective opposition?

Dunno mate.

 

[Aber gas]

I voted for Corbyn in the leadership election, having been a member of the party since 2010. He wasn't ideal, but I was horrified by the idea of the Labour Party attempting to be a credible opposition by emulating the ideas and language of the Conservative Party. I suspected the Corbyn experiment would either go Very Well, or be a Total Disaster. I did not think Cooper, Burnham or Kendall offered any viable chance of winning in 2020.

Obviously it has been a disaster, but I would have enjoyed being able to see Corbyn lead the Labour Party, rather than having to babysit a bunch of sore losers who are in denial that the Labour membership does not reflect their views, and have been consistently briefing against Corbyn from Day 1. The problem is there has been a lot that has been in Jeremy's control, and he still continues to miss open goals left, right and centre.

Regardless of why Jeremy's leadership isn't working - whether it is his fault or his parliamentary enemies - it is not working and this is not about to turn around. I wish this was happening after we knew who the next Prime Minister was going to be, because why would you not want to assess your opposite number before picking a leader to counter them?

The next leader cannot be of his wing of the party (just wasting time having the same arguments), so that rules out McDonnell, Trickett and Cat Smith. It also can't be, surely, anyone with huge Blairite baggage, or has recently failed in a leadership election, so that rules out Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, possibly both of the Eagles.

I hope it isn't Chuku Umunna since I find him ridiculous, and I know it's not his fault but it can't be Tristram Smith because you really can't paint Boris Johnson as out-of-touch if you're a Labour MP called Tristram.

My money is on either Lisa Nandy or Heidi Alexander, and I think Nandy would have a better chance with Labour members.

Awks

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

I respectfully disagree with you. Corbyn achieved a massive victory in the leadership election by his supporters mobilising using social media. There is no reason why it can't be replicated on a grander scale.

Will local Labour parties have lots of people out knocking on doors now? Who did all that work in the last election for Miliband? Are they really going to be enthused enough to do it for Corbyn?

Hopefully mnb because the only way labour will win the next election is with a bottom up campaign. It means knocking on doors, politicising students, winning the argument on a local level, engaging with people on a community basis and myriad other things that I'm probably going to get sneered at for suggesting.

Just want to say this flagging this exchange (from 2015) as bang on the money. Find it interesting that dickheads on messageboards (no-offence AG, but you see what I'm getting at) have consistently offered better, more accurate and more intelligent political analysis than the entire media comment industry, the political lobby and the vast majority of labour MPs.

Print media can't die soon enough.

 

[Aber gas]

Must admit, I said when Corbyn was elected Labour leader that they would never get in power while he was in charge.

Absolutely fucking hilarious that they're falling apart like this. Complete shambles.

Ha

 

[Aber gas]

Just want to say this flagging this exchange (from 2015) as bang on the money. Find it interesting that dickheads on messageboards (no-offence AG, but you see what I'm getting at) have consistently offered better, more accurate and more intelligent political analysis than the entire media comment industry, the political lobby and the vast majority of labour MPs.

Print media can't die soon enough.

No offence taken comrade. Anyway, back to business

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Criticised Corbyn/Momentum for their failure to build alternative networks of solidarity that could be used against institutions that are controlled by the state.

Pretty clearly got their necessity for a Corbyn electoral project wrong - informal networks across social media clearly do a lot of that work - and that's a really good and heartening thing.

I still thing some sort of social movement that extends way beyond getting people to canvass and door-knock and spread propaganda is extremely important.

Communist breakfast clubs might be a good start. I still have political and strategic concerns with Corbynism but I've been proven wrong enough times already that I'm kind of excited to see what can be done with it.

 

[Aber gas]

It's hard for anybody to win an election when their own party has been trying to oust them from day one though, as an "outsider" all of this has been some of the most pathetic stuff I've ever witnessed. They've nitpicked and been openly disgruntled since day one, genuinely why even bother joining a party and electing a leader you want if you get told no, not good enough, we want another one?

Whose going to vote for this joke of a party? I only did as I was determined to punish my party for their record in government at the last GE and want anything but the Tories, I'll never vote Labour again and it's entirely because of this behaviour. I'm not alone.

Cool story mate.

 

[Aber gas]

I think Labour are in a really tight spot here. If they make a wrong move I could easily see them becoming irrelevent and losing ground everywhere. They have a tough job both solidifying London and metropolitan areas which will be looking for a pro-EU left wing party, taking the Tory/Lab marginals by establishing themselves as economically credible and stopping the UKIP rise in the North which will go against the metropolitan areas. I don't see how Labour can do any of that with Corbyn in charge.

This is wrong.

 

[Aber gas]

I think the biggest issue is the £3 membership fee which seems to have given those activists who signed up after the election last year a great deal of self-entitlement. How many actually signed up? 200,000? An impressive figure, but in reality it counts for little when very few of them have actually been out on the doorstep campaigning for Labour. They're very active on social media and all circulate in the same sort of networks, giving them the impression that there's a great deal of support for Corbyn - which beyond their group and the metropolitan areas of north London, is just not true at all. If you don't believe me, go to a traditional Labour "heartland" and talk to the people there (trust me, I work in Grimsby where they've had a Labour MP since 1945), and you'll soon see there's no affection for Corbyn whatsoever. The same can be said for many areas of the north.

As I've said since he was first elected as party leader, he's a very decent and principled man who should stick to what he's good at - which is campaigning from the backbenches - but he'll never make a competent leader and he'll certainly come no where near winning a general election. In that regard, despite the messy actions of the PLP, he was doomed from the very start.

More sparkling insight from our man in the north.

 

[Aber gas]

Corbyn won't win a general election.
The electorate are too far to the right of Labour. Labour needs to bide it's time and sees what happens after article 50 is triggered (if it ever is). Theresa May, may do a Nick Clegg and scupper brexit or fight to keep the single market. Either outcome means nothing changes and the electorate might ditch them for UKIP or Labour (depending on their own petty self interests).

Err. ( I'd forgotten about Kopper)

 

[Aber gas]

At the moment I am not sure who is the best candidate. I don't think it's either Angela Eagle or Owen Smith, but I do think they're both a better bet than Corbyn. The current arguments have falsely made it look like everyone in Labour is either a follower of Corbyn or on the right of the party, and that is not true. I could forsee circumstances in which a lot of people could do well as leader. The main thing is about competence, clearly articulating your policies and views, being able to lead the PLP, doing things like responding to the new PM and Cabinet, and running a tight ship with clear, repetitive messages. None of this can currently be said for JC. If you want some names, the future of the party could be well represented by someone like Stella Creasy, Heidi Alexander, Tom Watson, Dan Jarvis, Rushanara Ali, Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan etc.

Labour needs to sound like a viable alternative to the Conservative Party. A lot of Jeremy's actual policies could be very popular, but people don't know what they are, because he is on a quest to prove that being popular or communicating through the mainstream media is some sort of unnecessary affectation.

LOL.

 

[Aber gas]

If in the unlikely event Owen Smith were to win the Labour leadership. He will find swing voters are on the right of the political spectrum.
Why is it so hard for some posters to see this reality?
Owen Smith nor anyone else on the left could move the party that far right and remain credible. That's why the Conservatives will win an increased majority in 2020.

Theresa May made the quib the Tories had 2 women Prime Ministers. But I would argue intentionally and unintentionally Labour had provided the environment for both to do so.

All kinds of wrong.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Nope.

Any idiot can be a clever dick arsehole with the benefit of hindsight, but it takes a special kind of low-expectation-having c*** to do so after finishing second.

You do realise that, right? The messiah, despite surpassing most people’s (woefully low) expectations, still finished second and 60+ seats shy of a parliamentary majority. And this against an absolute car crash of a Tory campaign – one of the worst in living memory.

Theresa May had a 2-yard tap in and hoofed it into row Z. There’s no accounting for that. Any Tory campaign with half-competent leadership would have easily secured a 50+ seat majority. If you want to be triumphalist and ignore that fact – the political equivalent of celebrating an away goals defeat to a team that played its worst game of the season – that’s fine.

Kind of disappointing that you’ve taken this approach despite me being pretty magnanimous in ‘defeat’ (see my previous post) as well as consistently generous to Corbyn during the last 12-18 months. But hey… you enjoy your moment. I'll enjoy being away from this nonsense for a while.

 

[jacobncfc]

I remain fairly ambivalent on Corbyn, but I do think that suggesting that "any Tory campaign with half-competent leadership would have easily secured a 50+ seat majority" is incredibly presumptive. Particularly if said campaign was starting from the same policy positions as May had.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Cool story mate.

Technically they settled down and got partially behind him so I've got my get out clause

 

[Aber gas]

Jeremy Corbyn's chance of winning a general election outright is literally zero, report says.

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57a985cbe4b07285e131da02?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001

Ooh.

 

[Stringy]

I remember having two conversations about Jeremy Corbyn many months ago with two older guys. The first guy said that Corbyn would never win an election because the party membership didn't represent the vast majority of modern Labour voters, who were closer to the centre right now than they had ever been. The second guy said when Corbyn was first put forward for the leadership that people would warm to him as soon as he started speaking and his personality would make up for any perceived shortfalls in his political outlook.

Now, fair enough, the Conservatives have still way outperformed Labour, but the election results makes this a better time to be a Labour supporter or a Conservative oppositionist. It seems that not only are divisions emerging in the Conservative party, but also the media is turning and beginning to represent political developments more fairly. Not to mention, that shared political hegemony of neoliberalism as the best course of government is disappearing - even if at the moment it is fanning out into splintering groups.

In my view, the Labour party has emerged from this election fully unified, knowing that any leadership challenge or criticism of Jeremy Corbyn just won't stand. Even if a government cannot be formed by Labour, this is just so much more positive than two years ago.

 

[Aber gas]

So is Iris in Durham who's counting for a local by-election where Labour continue to lose votes also got a vested interest?

Ignore polling, look at the facts. Labour are losing local seats everywhere, this will be shown nationally in 2020.

 

[Aber gas]

I want to like Corbyn. I really do. I admire his personal morality and ethical values. But as a leader the man is clueless and doesn't have a clue. There's bigger issues that need to be addressed before this. And secondly it's just talk with no clear idea of how to do it.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

G, stop.

 

[Aber gas]

Corbyn like Michael Foot or Tony Benn is a good man who genuinely would like to change the status quo and help the poorer members of society, but he just doesn't have the personality to appeal to the middle classes or the well off business execs, and will never get Labour re-elected.