The League One Relegation Thread 15/16

[Big Bird]

We should be ok now. 6 wins required to get us to 52 points. February looks tough though with quite a few away games. We play 3 away in a row during the month.

 

[dedwardp]

I think that we're done for this season. We've played well and come away with nothing on far too many occasions which has to be the sign of a side heading for the drop. If we assume that we'll need the usual 52 points then we basically need a 71 point season now until the end of the campaign. It's such a tall order.

I do think we will get ourselves out of the bottom four at some point this season, but whether it is at the right time or something we can sustain is another matter. If we do then it will presumably be off the back of a good run which will then end at some point - it would have to be timed pretty well I should think.

It's so frustrating though as I've been impressed with everything under Kevin Keen so far. I like everything about him and the way he comes across, his background, we look so much more solid and we've been playing well. I think both he and the team have enough about them to comfortably survive League One but fear we've left it too late to bring him in for that to happen this season. This is the fourth season in succession we've seriously struggled, yet it is the one I believe we are strongest in which is galling.

 

[Football Purist]

If we can just string a few results together we could easily stay up.
Watch us....it could get interesting.

 

[Shrimpurh]

I think the sides in the current bottom 4 will be the ones to go down.

 

[hold'um Oldham]

We are a strange one tbh. We have been absolutely abysmal this season. Our W total and league position says that. No denying it.

But ask any oldham fan and they will blame the majority of problems on the board, the management and the backroom staff. Yes the players have to take some of the blame but I honestly believe there is no way this squad is as bad as we have been this year.

If anything with the players it's a question of attitude. If anyone can get them playing it's shez. I'd expect him to make at least 3 or 4 decent signings before the window shuts. He won't stand for any half hearted performances either.

We are in too deep to say we will survive. But one thing I would expect now is for us to go down fighting with an outside chance of survival.

Don't look.at the gap and think we are down. I'd expect that to be much different come may

 

[wiganmudhuts28]

not looking to good for the real latics at the moment

 

[hold'um Oldham]

I'm afraid not. But the wablo status ain't gone just yet. It's still our division

 

[LondonOrn]

Oldham seem to be the League 1 equivalent of Coventry a few years back, mired in years and years of mediocrity during a long stint in the same division (in the past six seasons they haven't finished higher than 15th) so if they get relegated you can't say it hasn't been coming.

The question is which is more likely - that relegation might do them good in the long run in shaking up the club while they make a fresh start in new surroundings and eventually get back on track like Coventry have done, or they might become locked in a seemingly interminable decline a la Grimsby/Tranmere/Stockport?

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Oldham seem to be the League 1 equivalent of Coventry a few years back, mired in years and years of mediocrity during a long stint in the same division (in the past six seasons they haven't finished higher than 15th) so if they get relegated you can't say it hasn't been coming.

The question is which is more likely - that relegation might do them good in the long run in shaking up the club while they make a fresh start in new surroundings and eventually get back on track like Coventry have done, or they might become locked in a seemingly interminable decline a la Grimsby/Tranmere/Stockport?

Can guarantee when all our sides go down our side will be by far the worst out the relegated sides due to the board not giving a shit, we're saddled with an unsackable manager who is dreadful and the worst squad we've had for nearly 35 years.

I think Oldham would also struggle if relegated. They wouldn't do a Tranmere but I'd find it hard to see them coming back up at the first attempt. We spent years out the bottom tier and got a nasty shock thinking we'd piss it when we went down there only to concede lots of goals at the likes of Accrington and Morecambe!

Who knows though, maybe a change of division would galvanise Oldham's fanbase, but many said the same about Tranmere...

 

[hold'um Oldham]

Recon we would be OK tbh now not saying we would pull up trees but Sheridan knows that division well. Done well at Chesterfield and Plymouth and did a decent job for Newport albeit time limited.

But, I would think we could give this division a good whack next year and aim top half with shez at the helm. We just need to still be hanging on Come may

 

[Football Purist]

I think the sides in the current bottom 4 will be the ones to go down.

Apart from the one currently bottom.

 

[3Loggerheads]

I think the sides in the current bottom 4 will be the ones to go down.

One team who you would think are relatively safe will drop, always happens, hit a bad run at the wrong time and can't rescue it!

 

[dedwardp]

Tonight was really poor and we're going down. If we had played as we had for most of Saturday we would have won that 2 or 3-0, but we never got going. Too early for 'must win' games really, but it was as close to it as it could have been and we failed.

I think it may be the coldest it's ever been up there too, ridiculously freezing. Rubbish night all round.

 

[hold'um Oldham]

I'm still trying to decide if that was a good result for us or not

 

[TimeyWimey]

This week on 'Steve says the stupidest things'...

“I know that I’ve got the support of the majority of the supporters and that is encouraging for me"

Ladies and gentlemen, Steve Davis.

 

[JJ1532]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 - Wigan(28)
48 - Safety 2011 Coventry(28)
47 -
46 -
45 -
44 -
43 -
43 - Millwall(27)
42 -
41 - Peterborough(27), Sheff U(27), Southend(27)
40 -
39 -
38 - Bradford(25)
37 - Port Vale(27)
36 - Doncaster(27), Bury(26)
35 - Swindon(27), Scunthorpe(27)
34 - Rochdale(26)
33 - Barnsley(26)
32 -
31 -
30 - Chesterfield(28)
29 - Blackpool(27), Shrewsbury(27)
-------------------------------------------
28 - Fleetwood(26)
27 -
26 -
26 -
25 -
24 -
23 -
22 - Colchester(28)
21 - Oldham(26), Crewe(26)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Barnsley(26) - 33 points. Bradford(A), Swindon(A), Bury(H), Gillingham(A), Doncaster(H)
18th Chesterfield(28) - 30 points. Peterborough(H), Burton(A), Colchester(A), Crewe(H), Gillingham(A)
19th Blackpool(27) - 29 points. Sheff U(H), Gillingham(H), Oldham(A), Shrewsbury(H), Oldham(H)
21st Shrewsbury(27) - 29 points. Oldham(H), Southend(H), Fleetwood(A), Blackpool(A), Coventry(H)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20th Fleetwood(26) - 28 points. Walsall(H), Bradford(A), Shrewsbury(H), Port Vale(A), Scunthorpe(H)
22nd Colchester(28) - 22 points. Southend(A), Swindon(H), Chesterfield(H), Bury(A), Shrewsbury(H)
23rd Oldham(26) - 21 points. Shrewsbury(A), Blackpool(H), Peterborough(A), Wigan(A), Blackpool(A)
24th Crewe(26) - 21 points. Bury(A), Millwall(A), Rochdale(H), Walsall(H), Rochdale(A)

Working from the bottom up, Crewe got a point against promotion chasers Wigan. Not nearly enough however, they are now 9 points from safety and look done. Their run of games doesn't get any easier over the next few weeks either, 3 tough away trips. Oldham lost yet another home game and are, like Crewe, cut well adrift of safety. They'll be hoping that their away form can claw them back into contention, 4 of their next 5 are on the road. Either way, they look very likely to be joining the Alex in L2 next season. Colchester aren't much better off. In fact, they are probably worse off. They are 8 from safety having played 1 game more than Shrewsbury and Blackpool. After a nice cup game against Spurs next Saturday, they have a huge local derby against Southend. A win there could really get them going. Fleetwood scrape out 2 points from their last 2 but slip back into the bottom 4. 5 draws from their last 7 and only 1 defeat in that time isn't bad going but they are having issues winning games. Their -2 GD could come into play later in the season however, best of the bottom 7.

Shrewsbury leapfrog Fleetwood after a late win away at Burton. They need to make the most of their home form now with back to back home games coming up. Blackpool also grabbed a late goal away at a promotion chaser, grabbing a point away at Walsall. 4 home games in 5 for them now, good chance to pull away from the bottom 4 if they rack up some wins. Chesterfield looked like they might be upwardly mobile when they picked up 7 points from 9, but back to back defeats have put them right back in trouble. Not looking good for them, Wilson has inherited a shit squad there. Barnsley made it 4 straight wins with a 6-1 demolition of Rochdale. Can they pull clear, or are they still in the dogfight?

So, bottom 3 look done and dusted barring some miracle turnaround. Then it looks like it might be 1 from 4, with maybe a dark horse like Rochdale dropping into the mix. Keep an eye on them over the next few weeks I think.

 

[dedwardp]

We've wrapped this up already. Buzzing for Morecambe away on a Tuesday night.

 

[RotherhamDale]

We're peering in through the window.

 

[valefan16]

The bottom three are looking doomed already, in fairness Colchester have scraped survival in 2 of the last 3 seasons and Crewe have the last 2 so as per Notts County last season its probably been coming. One of the 4 teams from Fleetwood, Chesterfield, Blackpool and Shrewsbury I would say to join, a poor run now and one of them could get deep in it, Chesterfield losing Morsy would be a blow although Rochdale may be a suprise contender after yesterday.

 

[TimeyWimey]

We need to win half of our remaining games ( or win 9 & draw 3 of 20 etc) to be in with a chance. Need to win 11/20 to guarantee safety. etc etc. Dead and buried for us, has been since May tbf but the maths are now stacking up against us shithousing it for third season going. Same probably for Oldham and Colchester. Though Oldham have been proactive and with Sheridan have a vague chance of putting together a honeymoon period run of results and scraping safety.

Out of the teams around the fourth spot, from what I've seen of them, I'd be surprised if Shrewsbury don't drop.

 

[dedwardp]

The thing that's annoying this season is that we should be better than we have been the last three seasons we've struggled. The budget is supposedly better, and instead of just relying on kids we've been able to bring in more senior players. We could have gone down the last couple of years and almost understood it, but it shouldn't have been happening this year, we should have been more comfortable.

Instead, it's the worst of all four and we're a joke every week. The only pleasant thing has been the mini cup run.

 

[joethegill]

I swear Crewe and Colchester were in pretty much this exact position last season and still stayed up, so it's possible. Notts County were something stupid like 8th at the turn of the year and still went down, so watch out Sheffield United!

 

[valefan16]

The thing that's annoying this season is that we should be better than we have been the last three seasons we've struggled. The budget is supposedly better, and instead of just relying on kids we've been able to bring in more senior players. We could have gone down the last couple of years and almost understood it, but it shouldn't have been happening this year, we should have been more comfortable.

Instead, it's the worst of all four and we're a joke every week. The only pleasant thing has been the mini cup run.

To be fair when we went down last from this level (after a few fairly comfortable seasons) we'd apparently spent far more than previous... the fact it was on the likes of Paul Edwards and Craig Rocastle was the problem mind... *shudder*

 

[dedwardp]

I swear Crewe and Colchester were in pretty much this exact position last season and still stayed up, so it's possible. Notts County were something stupid like 8th at the turn of the year and still went down, so watch out Sheffield United!

We've played 28 games, only got 22 points. We're seven adrift but with the worst goal difference by miles, so effectively eight points gone. Plus, we've played at least one if not two games more than teams around us.

After 28 games last season, we had 28 points. We were only three points adrift, with a healthier goal difference than others and we had a game in hand ourselves.

 

[3Loggerheads]

Out of the teams around the fourth spot, from what I've seen of them, I'd be surprised if Shrewsbury don't drop.

You really mean you want to play us next season ....feel the love!

 

[Chris]

Fleetwood v Shrewsbury match in a couple of weeks time will be massive for both sides

 

[3Loggerheads]

Fleetwood v Shrewsbury match in a couple of weeks time will be massive for both sides

Maybe...... I think we will both stay up personally as well as Barnsley!

 

[Football Purist]

We are stayin' up!
We are stayin' up!

 

[GFC4EVA]

Crewe, colchester, oldham and Fleetwood to go down I reckon

 

[Chris]

Colchester, Crewe, Oldham and Shrewsbury for me.
Football webpages and Statto agree as well.
http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/leagueone/league/predicted
http://www.statto.com/football/odds/england/league-one/relegation