there's an election

[Aber gas]

I feel the same about Truss, Ledsham, Johnson and Fallen so I'm definitely not making my decisions based on quality of the cabinet. Although I am certain Kier Starmer is more effective than David Davis.

Yep, sober, sensible, considered Lawyer Keir Starmer or ludicrous, baby-man Boris. Ffs, why is even up for debate. Fml

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Of course. Which, as I stated earlier, is why I think a deal will be done. But I don't think stating a fundamental principle that you're prepared to walk away is particularly inflammatory or damaging. TBH it's the EU who are being most difficult here. All sensible people agree it would be mutually beneficial for British and EU citizens to be guaranteed the right to remain. We've gone to the EU in the spirit of cooperation saying we'll guarantee their 3 million right now if they do the same for our 1 million. They've point blanked refused. And have also put out malicious briefing designed to undermine the PM's position.

Our mob are far from perfect but the idea that the EU are only too keen to be helpful and we're throwing it back in their face is horse shit.

Doesn't repeatedly threatening to walk away without a deal if you don't get what you want rather undermine the insistence that we want to guarantee the right of EU citizens to remain? If I were an EU citizen living in the UK I think I'd be feeling rather insecure. Like everything about the government's Brexit strategy, the thinking seems rather muddled here.

The EU's position, that there can be no negotiations before Britain notifies the Union of their intention to leave through the triggering of A50, has always been fairly consistent. And presumably, as a bloc of 27/28 with different residency/citizenship requirements for non-EU nationals, it might not have been practical to offer early assurances on this front. Ideally there would be a reciprocal agreement in place but I fail to see why Britain, as the party who wish to sever the relationship, can't make this commitment now. Using people's lives as a bargaining chip seems pretty gross to me.

Personally, I wish we'd stop being so bloody belligerent. The tough talk might play well with the press and on the Tory backbenches but if you're not holding the whip hand in negotiations being conciliatory and acting in good faith will probably stand you in rather better stead.

 

[Aber gas]

Ha ha, I was wrong about Jezza being invited on for a cosy One Show chat. I'm not wrong about him being THE FUCKING BOY tho

 

[Renegade]

Did they ask him about what shoes he wears? And then did his wife say she takes out the bins?

 

[Aber gas]

Did they ask him about what shoes he wears? And then did his wife say she takes out the bins?

Unfortunately not. However they did have some hellish cute baby photos.

 

[Aber gas]

My sign is here

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

On the flip side just to be fair on the debate, i still have huge doubts on Corbyn regarding his inability to act against aggression. I have always personally been of the view WW2 happened because France and the UK spent too long debating, f*cking about and trying to dodge aggression all while allowing Hitler to build up his forces, take what land he wanted and do anything he linked time and again until it was too late.

Just down to his Falklands views suggests we'd just lost the Falklands to Argentina without any bother......makes me worry that Russia could easily impose itself without us doing anything to make them think otherwise with a Corbyn led UK and it would weaken EU position of power in that aspect.

Give or take really, given Theresa May will almost certainly drag us into whatever war Donald Trump cooks up to save his presidency whereas Corbyn probably wouldn't.

 

[BeesKnees]

This is interesting. How the polls are adjusted by reallocation/removal of undecided.
So the one on the left has already been adjusted for likelihood to vote based on age and affluence.

It shows that it is the additional factors (shy tories) that are changing the polls and that in reality they are very close together.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

My sign is here
View attachment 6530

Paint it Green and change Ruth Jones to Ian Chandler. Sorted.

 

[Aber gas]

Paint it Green and change Ruth Jones to Ian Chandler. Sorted.

No

 

[Blitzballer]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=902260309938036

 

[Abertawe]

So err we might just be on the verge of something incredible. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I understand that the latest YouGov has Con 42/ Lab 38. Fascinating stuff. It's a bit disconcerting that the likes of YouGov and Survation are now showing such a close race whilst ICM and ComRes still have double digit Tory leads. Looks like it's all down to methodology (they're all showing similar scores for Tories/Others and all showing the same trend - a narrowing race - but can't seem to agree on Lab). Only time will tell who's right, though having been burned so often of late I'm definitely going to be erring on the side of caution!

 

[JaseTheVillain]

I understand that the latest YouGov has Con 42/ Lab 38. Fascinating stuff. It's a bit disconcerting that the likes of YouGov and Survation are now showing such a close race whilst ICM and ComRes still have double digit Tory leads. Looks like it's all down to methodology (they're all showing similar scores for Tories/Others and all showing the same trend - a narrowing race - but can't seem to agree on Lab). Only time will tell who's right, though having been burned so often of late I'm definitely going to be erring on the side of caution!

I'm in agreement, but I am getting more and more quietly confident. I will stick by what I've been saying and say that the Tories will be the biggest party but won't have a majority, I see them being a minority government and we'll have ANOTHER election within the next 2 years or so, as it's difficult to run a country on a minority government for obvious reasons.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

I will donate two sets of £10 to Aber G and T's choices of charities if the election returns anything other than a Tory majority.

 

[Alty]

Still can't see anything other than a Tory majority. Shy Tory effect plus young people's habit of failing to actually get off their arses and vote on polling day.

That said, the talk of 100+ majority now seems like fantasy stuff. Very poor campaign by the Tories thus far.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

I understand that the latest YouGov has Con 42/ Lab 38. Fascinating stuff. It's a bit disconcerting that the likes of YouGov and Survation are now showing such a close race whilst ICM and ComRes still have double digit Tory leads. Looks like it's all down to methodology (they're all showing similar scores for Tories/Others and all showing the same trend - a narrowing race - but can't seem to agree on Lab). Only time will tell who's right, though having been burned so often of late I'm definitely going to be erring on the side of caution!

Read that the raw figures are something like 33-31 in favour of the Tories and the rest depends on the model each polling company applies.
Corbyn's in Stroud this afty, at FGR. Could be our biggest attendance of the season.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Even the headline of The Times today talks about a 'shock Tory crash' and a hung Parliament, with the Tories the biggest party but falling short by 16 seats. The Lib Dems won't get enough for any hypothetical coalition part 2 (not that they'd do that again I'm sure). So in that result we'd probably head for another election within a year

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Read that the raw figures are something like 33-31 in favour of the Tories and the rest depends on the model each polling company applies.
Corbyn's in Stroud this afty, at FGR. Could be our biggest attendance of the season.

Leeds would have taken more

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Tells you just how selfish the older generation are.

Vote for brexit.......vote ukip or tory.....when they believe ANYONE but their area will suffer from it........next generations can do the suffering.

Then......suddenly tories stupidly throw out some cocky (as we shall win easy anyway) ideas which for once may effect their beloved blue voting older group and suddenly they all switch sides like mad

 

[AFCB_Mark]

The Tory campaign and manifesto is just so....eurgh. They've learned nothing from Brexit. It's as if they looked at how the Remain campaign acted and thought to themselves "that worked well, let's do more of that".

Look at how they only go on about being the safe sensible choice, how they paint the other side as radical and dangerous. Look at how they come up with basically nothing new and nothing positive. Look at how it's a campaign based on fear of the other choice, a campaign based on preserving the status quo rather than gambling.

The electorate didn't go in for the negative, dour, safe campaign of the last 18 months. They took a gamble instead, the louder riskier option. they rejected Remain and their lack of anything positive to say. So it should come as no surprise that they aren't lapping up the negative, dour safe campaign with little positive to say - this time around.

May has made an absolute dogs dinner of this campaign. After the local election momentum, Tories winning seats where they had no rights doing so, she was through with an almost open goal. Like Emile Heskey, she might end up hooking the ball over the line off her shin or arse in the end, but it could have been so much simpler. Indeed she might well end up missing the chance all together.

All she had to do was build on what got people voting Brexit. Press Labour hard on it to expose the fact they haven't a scooby what to do about Brexit. Attack the Lib Dems for wanting to row back on Brexit. Brexit Brexit Brexit. Be loud about it.

Instead she's kept herself locked away in a cupboard, letting Corbyn off the EU hook and letting Labour dictate the debate, let Labour press home areas where they are stronger and let them ignore their weaknesses. With fluffy fuzzy ideas on the domestic front, jam tomorrow for everyone (literally in the One Shows case!).

She's peddling a dour negative campaign based on being the safer option and the other side being incompetent or risky. It didn't work last year so it's not going to work this year. It's no surprise that the brighter Labour offering is pushing more buttons for people.

Also - I have to credit Corbyn or the people around him for polishing him up. He's gone from that babbling scruffy weird uncle, who couldn't speak in the media very well at all. To a more polished, articulate and presentable candidate. Between the cosmetic difference in looking more like a proper politician, he's also visibly more comfortable than he was on the tele. Obviously not perfect, as that LBC interview showed the other day. But better than he was when he first took on the Leadership. Which makes it harder for the Tories to paint him as the incompetent risk even if it worked.

 

[Benji]

He's said he's going to the debate tonight. Will May be there?

 

[Abertawe]

Corbyn to appear on the leaders debate tonight. Good call. Will have free reign to be the boy. Would be sweet if he handed out jams to his peers.

 

[markwwfc1992]

Will be very disappointing if May doesn't show up now. If every other party leader has agreed to debate, except for the Prime Minister, it shows cowardice. She will have a lot more to lose than she will to gain by not attending.

 

[BeesKnees]

Will be very disappointing if May doesn't show up now. If every other party leader has agreed to debate, except for the Prime Minister, it shows cowardice. She will have a lot more to lose than she will to gain by not attending.

Not sure,
If she goes they will rip her to pieces.

Providing Corbyn holds his own then May is in trouble.

 

[Stringy]

If she doesn't show up to this then she doesn't deserve the opportunity to lead.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Will be very disappointing if May doesn't show up now. If every other party leader has agreed to debate, except for the Prime Minister, it shows cowardice. She will have a lot more to lose than she will to gain by not attending.

It's certainly put her between a rock and a hard place. Either she doesn't show (sticking to her guns) and is a coward who shies from the debate. Or she changes her mind and goes, but is then seen to be only dragged to the debate kicking and screaming by JC, in another act of letting Labour set the tempo.

 

[markwwfc1992]

Not sure,
If she goes they will rip her to pieces.

Providing Corbyn holds his own then May is in trouble.

Thinking more that if she can't handle a debate with other party leaders, A lot of 50/50 voters (I feel like I'm one of them at the moment) will think twice on of she can get the best out of EU leaders with Brexit negotiations.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Crafty late timing by corbyn.......lwft it late so hard for May to go, but not too late for them to use the 'didn't have time' excuse.

She now looks bad either way. Either turns up as forced, not by choice or a coward

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Also - I have to credit Corbyn or the people around him for polishing him up. He's gone from that babbling scruffy weird uncle, who couldn't speak in the media very well at all. To a more polished, articulate and presentable candidate. Between the cosmetic difference in looking more like a proper politician, he's also visibly more comfortable than he was on the tele. Obviously not perfect, as that LBC interview showed the other day. But better than he was when he first took on the Leadership. Which makes it harder for the Tories to paint him as the incompetent risk even if it worked.

There's a reason that Corbyn energised the Labour selectorate and won two stonking victories: he's a very competent campaigner. He's charismatic and likeable. He seems to genuinely like meeting people. I think part of the reason for labour's resurgence is the difference between the calm, engaging Corbyn you see on TV and the batshit loonie leftie that is portrayed in the media.

He's also battle-hardened having been campaigning pretty much non-stop since 2015 - he looks like he's genuinely enjoying the general election - which makes him in a minority of about one, I think. I'm not that surprised that people are much warmer to Corbynism when they see him and its policies rather than the media image.

There's been a recent tendency among some of the liberal commentariat to imply that anyone other than Corbyn would have been walking this election (a revision of their earlier position of the hapless Corbyn leading Labour to irreversible oblivion). But it's nonsense, isn't it? Owen Smith put himself forward as an anti-Brexit candidate - Theresa May would have made mincemeat of him on her strongest terrain (plus he was as weird and robotic as May herself). I mean look at the lib dems to see how that's working as a strategy.

Labour's manifesto contains a heap of popular (populist?) policies that directly challenge the post-2010 consensus, and it's shifting of the debate onto those terms that has brought about the relative turnaround in Labour's fortunes (helped, in part, by the Tories own dire manifesto).