Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

[Conker]

I still haven’t listened to the interview, but the interviewer was pretty much banned from doing interviews with the clubs YouTube channel because he was annoying Matt Gray. And Matt Gray has the patience of a saint

But he did nothing wrong in that interview.

 

[JJ1990]

He should have explained his questioning. On the surface, asking "why is your top goalscorer taking the penalty" makes little sense, but in the context of Smith apparently wrestling the ball away from the designated taker, it does. So if the interviewer had said as much, I don't think he'd have gotten such a poor response. Still not a good look on Morison, never understand why managers get so arsey with journalists, even the bad ones. Just give the generic answers for 4-5 minutes and that's it, done. Getting arsey these days just leads to this sort of shit storm. Not worth it.

 

[GTFCfish]

To be fair that guy asking the questions is about as natural at it as John Fashanu was on Gladiators or Tess Daly is on Strictly.

Awooga!!!!

 

[JJ1990]

60 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 -
38 -
37 -
36 - Expected Survival 23/24
35 -
34 -
33 - Grimsby(33)
32 - Colchester(34)
31 -
30 -
29 -
28 -
------------------------------------------------------
27 - Forest Green(35)
26 - Sutton(36)

Mixed week for the bottom 2. Sutton get a great win over Notts County, but then lose to Tranmere. FGR minutes away from a priceless win over Wrexham, but draw. Then lose to Grimsby. Not ideal for both with games running out and teams above them having both games in hand and the better goal difference.

Grimsby get a great win, but have a lot of games left to play, as do Colchester who's pitch could be their undoing. Tough run coming up for Grimsby, with 4 promotion chasers in their next 5. Colchester's run isn't ideal either.


21st- Grimsby, 33 points, -15 GD: Wimbledon(A), Sutton(A), MK Dons(H), Gillingham(A), Wrexham(H)
22nd - Colchester, 31 points, -17 GD: Barrow(A), Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Mansfield(A), Newport(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 27 points, -29 GD: Walsall(H), Bradford(A), Sutton(H), Doncaster(A), Stockport(H)
24th - Sutton, 26 points, -29 GD: Grimsby(H), Crewe(A), Forest Green(A), Accrington(H), Salford(A)

Next Week's Fixtures:

Tuesday 5th March
AFC Wimbledon v Grimsby Town

Saturday 9th March
Barrow v Colchester United
Forest Green Rovers v Walsall
Sutton United v Grimsby Town

Massive week in the relegation fight. Grimsby play one of their games in hand on Tuesday. An unlikely win there would be huge for them. But the big one is next Saturday. Colchester are going to be a bit rusty after several postponements. FGR will need to make home form count against an inform Walsall.

Sutton v Grimsby is pivotal though. If Sutton don't win, you really do feel it's curtains for them. If Grimsby win, then they won't be safe, but will move a heck of a lot closer to it.

 

[Greenacres]

The scariest thing for me looking at our fixtures posted above is that three of the next four are probably the easiest (on paper) that we have remaining, against Bradford, Sutton and Donny Rovers...apart from Notts County on the last day of the season, we have seven games against teams in the top nine...staying up will be a bit of a challenge and sadly I don't think our squad is either up to it or up for it.

 

[AdamStag]

Bit of a surprise at grimsby i genuinely thought FG would get something there, bit of a kick in the nuts for both them and sutton.

 

[ForzaCounty]

60 - Mathematical Safety

Safe for another year, all that matters really

 

[chief]

Looking at the expected needed points compared to the average, Grimsby and Colchester can count themselves very lucky.

Feel Colchester are forever in those spots just above relegation.

 

[GTFCfish]

Bit of a surprise at grimsby i genuinely thought FG would get something there, bit of a kick in the nuts for both them and sutton.

Thankfully Artell abandoned his philosophy just in time and we’ve picked up 4 points from 2 games since and look a lot more solid now.

 

[Limerick Mariner]

Thankfully Artell abandoned his philosophy just in time and we’ve picked up 4 points from 2 games since and look a lot more solid now.

But as I’ve alluded in a few facetious type posts, we could have ourself the trouble and the cash and not sacked Paul Hurst. I can’t see how we will have the budget to sign the quality of player Artell will need for his “style”

 

[Chris FGR]

Getting 1 point out of our recent games with Colchester and Grimsby isn't ideal. Can't seem to turn up when it really matters.

 

[mightyshrimp]

As a Morecambe fan it is so nice being able to look at this seasons relegation battle without us being involved ,I know every season we are 1 of the favourites for relegation ,even the season we got promoted to league 1 we were favourites for relegation. Ged Brannan has done a cracking job since arriving at the club and working under difficult circumstances, like budget restraints and also loosing all of our loan players and then selling our best player to Milwall ,but the players he has got in and the players already with the club have all adjusted well to his style of play,more wins would be great to keep us up near the play offs.
Hopefully Grimsby can get a run together and pull away from bottom 2 .

 

[GTFCfish]

But as I’ve alluded in a few facetious type posts, we could have ourself the trouble and the cash and not sacked Paul Hurst. I can’t see how we will have the budget to sign the quality of player Artell will need for his “style”

I’m sure that this wasn’t the plan, to abandon it and go back to being hard to beat but boring but it’s what’s needed at this time to get out of the shit.
Given the accounts we’ve just produced our budget should be more than enough to get the players in that Artell needs, the problem is getting the players to actually want to come and relocate to the east coast above any other teams offering similar money in more attractive locations.

 

[Limerick Mariner]

I’m sure that this wasn’t the plan, to abandon it and go back to being hard to beat but boring but it’s what’s needed at this time to get out of the shit.
Given the accounts we’ve just produced our budget should be more than enough to get the players in that Artell needs, the problem is getting the players to actually want to come and relocate to the east coast above any other teams offering similar money in more attractive locations.

Yes over the years we’ve probably had to pay over the odds to get players to come.

I was very disappointed to lose Conteh so quickly - apparently he couldn’t get away quick enough according to the rumours on the Fishy. An Artellball style needs technical quality and a very dynamic midfield. Otherwise you get the Donny scenario - huge gaps in midfield when getting caught in possession.

 

[Cloudy]

I’m sure that this wasn’t the plan, to abandon it and go back to being hard to beat but boring but it’s what’s needed at this time to get out of the shit.
Given the accounts we’ve just produced our budget should be more than enough to get the players in that Artell needs, the problem is getting the players to actually want to come and relocate to the east coast above any other teams offering similar money in more attractive locations.

Don’t think they need to Relocate to the East Coast. Many travel in from Sheffield,Barnsley, even Manchester. Isn’t ideal I grant you but players like Danny Rose moved from Stevenage to be closer to their familes made Grimsby attractive enough

 

[Meadow]

50 points and safe. Only once have we achieved that earlier in our nearly 13 years in the EFL and that was the season we went up via the playoffs.

 

[GTFCfish]

Don’t think they need to Relocate to the East Coast. Many travel in from Sheffield,Barnsley, even Manchester. Isn’t ideal I grant you but players like Danny Rose moved from Stevenage to be closer to their familes made Grimsby attractive enough

Yeah it can work in our favour occasionally like with Josh Emmanuel last year but more often than not it works against us being so far east.

 

[jojo]

As a Morecambe fan it is so nice being able to look at this seasons relegation battle without us being involved ,I know every season we are 1 of the favourites for relegation ,even the season we got promoted to league 1 we were favourites for relegation. Ged Brannan has done a cracking job since arriving at the club and working under difficult circumstances, like budget restraints and also loosing all of our loan players and then selling our best player to Milwall ,but the players he has got in and the players already with the club have all adjusted well to his style of play,more wins would be great to keep us up near the play offs.
Hopefully Grimsby can get a run together and pull away from bottom 2 .

TBF i wrote us off before any ball was kicked, I feel stupid but after the complete dismantling of us in summer 2023

 

[BarraMatt]

Colchester are very limited and didn't really trouble us despite a very average performance from ourselves. Forest Green definitely have more about them and based off what I've seen in recent weeks would fancy them for survival.

 

[Conker]

.

 

[Limerick Mariner]

Once again like Tuesday we struggled off the ball and controlling a game which is unusual for us but we still had plenty of chances.

Swindon goalie made a few great saves and a defender with a brilliant goal line clearance so another day we may have had a few more despite not playing very well, it’s encouraging we create so much while not at our best. Got to be said though that Swindon had some chances too and played reasonably well.

I think you safe for another year and I can’t see Swindon dragged into this…

 

[AdamStag]

swindon were one of the better sides i’ve seen this season both home and away, that they’re 18th is ridiculous but also an indicator of the quality of the league

 

[Conker]

I think you safe for another year and I can’t see Swindon dragged into this…

One min just gunna copy and paste to correct thread

 

[JJ1990]

60 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 - Expected Survival 23/24
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 - Grimsby(35)
34 -
33 -
32 - Colchester(35)
31 -
------------------------------------------------------
30 - Forest Green(36)
29 -
28 -
27 - Sutton(37)

Sutton avoid total disaster by not losing to Grimsby, but can't pick up a priceless win and remain 6 points from safety with the games fast running out. Forest Green are making things interesting though, they have closed the gap to Colchester and the right set of results on Tuesday could have the Us falling into the bottom 2.

Grimsby keep drawing their way to safety as Artell seems to have realised that he needs to get results and worry about the process later. 2 solid points on 2 trips to London. Colchester though, is it too soon to start questioning the Cowleys? Or questioning whether the club is just cursed, given the plethora of managers who can't seem to get them winning?

21st- Grimsby, 35 points, -15 GD: MK Dons(H), Gillingham(A), Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 32 points, -19 GD: Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 30 points, -27 GD: Bradford(A), Sutton(H), Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -29 GD: Crewe(A), Forest Green(A), Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Looking at the run ins, FGR definitely have it it tough, but Grimsby don't have it easy, especially in the rest of March and early April. Colchester have a lot of home fixtures, 7 of their final 11, but can they make them count? Sutton look done, but that FGR game next Saturday is their last chance for me. Win there and they've got hope. Lose and they are done.

Midweek's Fixtures:

Tuesday 12th March
Bradford City v Forest Green Rovers
Colchester United v Doncaster Rovers
Crewe Alexandra v Sutton United
Grimsby Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Grimsby and Sutton have promotion chasers, which both look tough for them. Colchester should fancy their chances against a poor on the road Doncaster team, whilst FGR have the inform Bradford. Not easy for any team I'd argue.

 

[Gunit]

We’re obviously done after yesterday. Looks like 1 of Colchester and FGR from the rest. FGR have a timely home match against us which you’d expect them to win by 2 or 3. After battling away and being close in most games yesterday just looked like we were done, there are only so many set backs a team can take. To be outplayed in a must win game by a limited Grimsby at home sums it all up. 2nd to everything all game until perhaps the last 20.

 

[Son of Cod]

We’re obviously done after yesterday. Looks like 1 of Colchester and FGR from the rest. FGR have a timely home match against us which you’d expect them to win by 2 or 3. After battling away and being close in most games yesterday just looked like we were done, there are only so many set backs a team can take. To be outplayed in a must win game by a limited Grimsby at home sums it all up. 2nd to everything all game until perhaps the last 20.

I'm usually over any bad results or injustice in a Town match about 5 mins after full time but I'm still fuming about that penalty yesterday. I think that's partly because it was essentially of very little use to you. The three points would have been massive for us but that single point does little to help you lot. One of the most mind boggingly poor decisions/incidents I've seen at a game in almost 35 years watching us and it's resulted in being little to no benefit to anyone involved.

 

[Son of Cod]

60 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 - Expected Survival 23/24
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 - Grimsby(35)
33 -
32 - Colchester(35)
31 -
------------------------------------------------------
30 - Forest Green(36)
29 -
28 -
27 - Sutton(37)

Sutton avoid total disaster by not losing to Grimsby, but can't pick up a priceless win and remain 6 points from safety with the games fast running out. Forest Green are making things interesting though, they have closed the gap to Colchester and the right set of results on Tuesday could have the Us falling into the bottom 2.

Grimsby keep drawing their way to safety as Artell seems to have realised that he needs to get results and worry about the process later. 2 solid points on 2 trips to London. Colchester though, is it too soon to start questioning the Cowleys? Or questioning whether the club is just cursed, given the plethora of managers who can't seem to get them winning?

21st- Grimsby, 34 points, -15 GD: MK Dons(H), Gillingham(A), Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 32 points, -19 GD: Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 30 points, -27 GD: Bradford(A), Sutton(H), Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -29 GD: Crewe(A), Forest Green(A), Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Looking at the run ins, FGR definitely have it it tough, but Grimsby don't have it easy, especially in the rest of March and early April. Colchester have a lot of home fixtures, 7 of their final 11, but can they make them count? Sutton look done, but that FGR game next Saturday is their last chance for me. Win there and they've got hope. Lose and they are done.

Midweek's Fixtures:

Tuesday 12th March
Bradford City v Forest Green Rovers
Colchester United v Doncaster Rovers
Crewe Alexandra v Sutton United
Grimsby Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Grimsby and Sutton have promotion chasers, which both look tough for them. Colchester should fancy their chances against a poor on the road Doncaster team, whilst FGR have the inform Bradford. Not easy for any team I'd argue.

God stuff, JJ. How is expected survival calculated? Agreed nobody has got particularly easy looking run ins, I think if we can somehow get 4 points from our next 4 then we'll have done well to have weathered the worst of ours before we face a slightly more fogiving run though.

 

[Gladders]

60 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 - Expected Survival 23/24
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 - Grimsby(35)
33 -
32 - Colchester(35)
31 -
------------------------------------------------------
30 - Forest Green(36)
29 -
28 -
27 - Sutton(37)

Sutton avoid total disaster by not losing to Grimsby, but can't pick up a priceless win and remain 6 points from safety with the games fast running out. Forest Green are making things interesting though, they have closed the gap to Colchester and the right set of results on Tuesday could have the Us falling into the bottom 2.

Grimsby keep drawing their way to safety as Artell seems to have realised that he needs to get results and worry about the process later. 2 solid points on 2 trips to London. Colchester though, is it too soon to start questioning the Cowleys? Or questioning whether the club is just cursed, given the plethora of managers who can't seem to get them winning?

21st- Grimsby, 34 points, -15 GD: MK Dons(H), Gillingham(A), Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 32 points, -19 GD: Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 30 points, -27 GD: Bradford(A), Sutton(H), Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -29 GD: Crewe(A), Forest Green(A), Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Looking at the run ins, FGR definitely have it it tough, but Grimsby don't have it easy, especially in the rest of March and early April. Colchester have a lot of home fixtures, 7 of their final 11, but can they make them count? Sutton look done, but that FGR game next Saturday is their last chance for me. Win there and they've got hope. Lose and they are done.

Midweek's Fixtures:

Tuesday 12th March
Bradford City v Forest Green Rovers
Colchester United v Doncaster Rovers
Crewe Alexandra v Sutton United
Grimsby Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Grimsby and Sutton have promotion chasers, which both look tough for them. Colchester should fancy their chances against a poor on the road Doncaster team, whilst FGR have the inform Bradford. Not easy for any team I'd argue.

You've done us out of a point, 35 not 34.

 

[Gladders]

God stuff, JJ. How is expected survival calculated? Agreed nobody has got particularly easy looking run ins, I think if we can somehow get 4 points from our next 4 then we'll have done well to have weathered the worst of ours before we face a slightly more fogiving run though.

Assume its points per game that the bottom two have out to 46 games.

 

[immariner]

60 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 - Expected Survival 23/24
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 - Grimsby(35)
33 -
32 - Colchester(35)
31 -
------------------------------------------------------
30 - Forest Green(36)
29 -
28 -
27 - Sutton(37)

Sutton avoid total disaster by not losing to Grimsby, but can't pick up a priceless win and remain 6 points from safety with the games fast running out. Forest Green are making things interesting though, they have closed the gap to Colchester and the right set of results on Tuesday could have the Us falling into the bottom 2.

Grimsby keep drawing their way to safety as Artell seems to have realised that he needs to get results and worry about the process later. 2 solid points on 2 trips to London. Colchester though, is it too soon to start questioning the Cowleys? Or questioning whether the club is just cursed, given the plethora of managers who can't seem to get them winning?

21st- Grimsby, 34 points, -15 GD: MK Dons(H), Gillingham(A), Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 32 points, -19 GD: Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 30 points, -27 GD: Bradford(A), Sutton(H), Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -29 GD: Crewe(A), Forest Green(A), Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Looking at the run ins, FGR definitely have it it tough, but Grimsby don't have it easy, especially in the rest of March and early April. Colchester have a lot of home fixtures, 7 of their final 11, but can they make them count? Sutton look done, but that FGR game next Saturday is their last chance for me. Win there and they've got hope. Lose and they are done.

Midweek's Fixtures:

Tuesday 12th March
Bradford City v Forest Green Rovers
Colchester United v Doncaster Rovers
Crewe Alexandra v Sutton United
Grimsby Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Grimsby and Sutton have promotion chasers, which both look tough for them. Colchester should fancy their chances against a poor on the road Doncaster team, whilst FGR have the inform Bradford. Not easy for any team I'd argue.

There's little chance it'll be as low as 39. I think 43/44 might be enough if we maintain our goal difference advantage. So 8/9 points minimum for us from here realistically. Certainly feel a lot better about that prospect than I did 4 games ago. 4 points from the next tough-looking 4 would be a decent start